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May 14 Review: Emotions directly hit rock bottom, after double bearish wins bullish, tomorrow we need to watch these signals.
Today’s market can be described as “flash freezing,” with all four major indices falling across the board: Shanghai Composite down 1.52%, Shenzhen Component down 2.14%, ChiNext down 2.16%, and STAR 50 down 2.55%, with no resistance at the index level.
The advance-decline ratio directly gives the answer: after excluding ST and new stocks, only 1,010 stocks rose, 4,115 fell, with a coverage rate of 19.71%, dropping sharply from the previous day’s warm market of over 60% to an extreme situation of “eight losses, one flat, one profit,” with a full-blown loss effect. [Taogu Bar]
The negative feedback from market sentiment is very direct: Fuda Alloy opened with a limit-down, directly crushing the expectations for Datang Power’s upgrade, which fell over 2% after opening, and the rally in high-priced stocks was immediately shattered.
Only 54 stocks hit the daily limit up, 17 hit the limit down, and short-term capital’s risk appetite has fallen to a recent low.
On the sector side: the main themes are fully differentiated, and funds have already started seeking low-position safe havens. Today’s sector split is very interesting:
Only the remaining strength direction: chips are the only “survivor” today, with 12 stocks hitting the limit up, telecom, photovoltaic, and computing power each with 5 limit-ups, and the ST sector also ranks high in strength, indicating funds are already moving towards low positions and low volatility for risk hedging;
The most severely beaten sectors: commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, lithium batteries, first-quarter growth, and smart grids all led the decline, with the top five net outflows of main funds being chips, telecom, artificial intelligence, lithium batteries, and power.
Even the strongest chip sector today is experiencing capital outflows, indicating sector divergence has reached an extreme, purely a “fan rotation” market, with no sector able to sustain continuous capital inflows.
Tomorrow’s trading strategy: first focus on defense, then on recovery. Two key levels and three target stocks are core, and I want to give everyone a risk warning:
Today formed a double-yin bullish pattern, and the key supports at 4225 and 4217 were directly broken, clearly turning short-term weak. The first priority is to guard against further decline and avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
How will tomorrow’s market move? Just watch two core anchor points:
【Sentiment Anchor】Observe the performance of three targets to see if Datang Power can rebound and hit the limit: it is the core “hot spot” among high-priced stocks today. If it performs strongly, it indicates funds still have the willingness to push high;
Can Fuda Alloy stop falling: it is the source of today’s negative feedback. If it continues to hit the bottom button, high-priced stocks will be further dragged down;
Can Mona Lisa successfully upgrade: it represents low-position continuous boards, and its trend determines the fault tolerance of low-position arbitrage.
If two of these three targets weaken, the market sentiment tomorrow is likely to continue downward, so don’t act rashly.
【Level Anchor】Two attack lines are the dividing line between strength and weakness. Tomorrow’s two resistance levels are key to judging the strength of the recovery:
First resistance at 4192 points (May 13 bullish bottom): this is the boundary of extreme short-term weakness. If this level cannot be reached, it indicates no weak recovery, and you should hold back;
Second resistance at 4217 points (today’s breakdown level): only with a volume breakout above this level can recovery be confirmed, and then consider opening positions in the direction.
If neither level can be crossed, it’s a “double-yin victory with a sudden attack,” and the market will continue to decline. Avoid forcing trades.
In this kind of extreme bottom market, there’s no need to panic. After sentiment hits rock bottom, recovery often follows. But always wait for clear signals before acting. Remember: the market is never short of opportunities; don’t deplete your capital when the trend is unclear.