Prices surge by 600%! Global sulfur shortage of 11 million tons, leading companies' performance to increase tenfold in June!

There is an industry that could see explosive performance in the second quarter! Earnings may surge: over 5 times! [Taoguba]
And it’s a very obscure market because only obscurity means few people are paying attention!
Only when earnings are announced can there be a big explosion, and only those who have studied deeply before can hold on!
But 90% of people don’t know about this now! They can’t understand it either!
The industry is: Sulfuric Acid + Sulfur = Sulfur Industry!
But the biggest beneficiaries here might not be what you think or know: the bigger the storm, the more fish and shrimp there are!

Why? The core thinking is as follows, and we also wrote about the logic last week. We started researching on April 27!

1. Event-driven: Severe shortage of global sulfur resources, multiple crises erupting simultaneously!

Currently, the global sulfur resource (sulfur, sulfuric acid) market has entered a stage of rigid supply shortage, persistent demand growth, and record-high prices. From geopolitical conflicts, trade restrictions, industrial production to agricultural security, the entire supply chain is experiencing shortages that trigger chain reactions. The key crisis signals are as follows:
(1) Geopolitical supply crisis: Middle East “Sulfur Heart” halts, global trade arteries cut off

1. Escalation of Middle East conflicts causes sulfur supply to plummet: Since February 2026, Iran’s war broke out. The Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, etc.), as the core sulfur-producing region (accounting for 45% of global output and 50% of trade), has seen over 30% of sulfur production facilities reduced or halted. The Strait of Hormuz blockade completely obstructs sulfur shipping.
2. Russian exports restricted, combined with multiple bans: Russia’s sulfur export ban has been extended repeatedly, sharply shrinking the second-largest global supply source; Turkey first implemented sulfur export bans, followed by India and the UAE, reducing global sulfur circulation by over 35%.
3. China’s high import dependence, supply chain near breaking point: China’s sulfur import dependence is 56%, with 50% coming from the Middle East. In 2026, imports decreased by 2.12 million tons compared to 2025, port inventories fell to 1.5 million tons, with a stock-to-sales ratio of less than 1 month, hitting a historic low.
   (2) Price crisis: sulfur and sulfuric acid prices soar, industry chain costs spiral out of control
4. Sulfur prices break historical highs: In May 2026, sulfur prices at Zhenjiang Port reached 7,300 yuan/ton, up 90% from the beginning of the year (3,850 yuan/ton), nearly 600% higher than the 2024 lows, far exceeding the 2008 record high (5,872 yuan/ton).

2. Sulfuric acid prices double: 98% industrial sulfuric acid prices rose from 800 yuan/ton at the start of 2026 to 1,800 yuan/ton in May, a 125% increase. Spot prices in some regions broke through 2,000 yuan/ton. Companies are operating with zero inventory, with orders scheduled into Q4.

3. Pyrite prices soar in tandem: Yunnan’s 48% sulfur iron ore prices reached 2,510 yuan/ton, up 60% from the start of the year. Leading companies are reluctant to sell, and the market is hard to find available goods.
   (3) Industry crisis: Four core industries reduce or halt production due to acid shortages, triggering chain reactions
4. New energy (wet nickel): capacity halved, global nickel supply in crisis: Indonesia’s wet nickel (HPAL) capacity accounts for 60% of the world. Each ton of nickel consumes 2.5 tons of sulfuric acid. Due to acid shortages, Indonesia’s HPAL plants reduced production by 50% in 2026. An additional 1.2 million tons of capacity was delayed, directly causing nickel prices to surge globally and increasing costs in the new energy battery industry chain.
5. Agriculture (phosphatic fertilizer): Spring plowing needs hindered, threatening global food security: Phosphatic fertilizer accounts for 58% of sulfuric acid consumption. During spring, fertilizer output accounts for 45%-50% of annual production. Due to sulfur and sulfuric acid shortages, China and India’s fertilizer plants operated at only 60%, with prices rising 30%. Some regions face fertilizer shortages during spring planting, threatening grain production.
6. Non-ferrous metals (copper, zinc): Smelting costs soar, refined copper supply tight: Sulfuric acid is a core leaching agent for copper hydrometallurgy (SX-EW), accounting for 20% of global copper production. Due to acid shortages, hydrometallurgical copper capacity has dropped to 70%. Copper prices broke through $14,000/ton for the first time. Zinc smelting companies face inverted costs, with some small and medium enterprises halting production.
7. Chemicals (titanium dioxide, electronic chemicals): Cost-driven price increases, high-end supply constrained: The production of titanium dioxide via sulfuric acid consumes 1.5 tons of sulfuric acid per ton. Since March 2026, titanium dioxide companies have raised prices by 3.5%-10%. The industry faces a vicious cycle of “cost inversion — reduced output — price hikes.” Domestic self-sufficiency for electronic-grade sulfuric acid has fallen to 50%, risking supply disruptions for semiconductor companies.

(4) Policy crisis: China’s sulfuric acid export ban intensifies global supply tightness
Starting May 1, 2026, China fully bans the export of general industrial sulfuric acid, only retaining export quotas for high-value-added sulfuric acid like electronic grade. China’s sulfuric acid output accounts for 44.2% of the world. The ban directly reduces global effective sulfuric acid supply by 1.8 million tons/year. The global sulfuric acid supply-demand gap widens from 3.2 million tons to over 5 million tons, further tightening domestic supply.

2. Market volume and supply-demand gap: worsening global imbalance, prominent structural contradictions

(1) Overall market size: global and China scale estimates and structural analysis
The core of sulfur resource market size revolves around sulfur (upstream raw material) and sulfuric acid (midstream processing product). They form a strong “raw material - processing” binding relationship. The market size and structure directly reflect the fundamentals of the industry chain supply and demand.

Key conclusions and logical extensions
China has become the world’s largest consumer and producer of sulfur resources: sulfuric acid self-sufficiency rate is about 97%. The May 2026 export ban further strengthens domestic supply tightness, preventing resource outflow and exacerbating shortages.
The contradiction between sulfur and sulfuric acid supply and demand is more pronounced for sulfur: China’s domestic sulfur production can only meet 52% of demand, with an import dependence of 56%. Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East directly affect supply stability; sulfuric acid self-sufficiency is high but prices are highly linked to sulfur prices.
The “China demand, Middle East supply” pattern is becoming fixed globally: China’s sulfur demand accounts for 22.6% of the world, with only 12.2% of global output. The gap relies on imports; Middle East sulfur output accounts for 45% of the world, and supply stability mainly determines global price trends.

(2) In-depth analysis of supply-demand gap: structural contradictions highlight, new energy as the core driver of the gap
The scale of the gap peaks in 2026, driven by Indonesia’s wet nickel capacity release, Middle East conflicts, and domestic spring fertilizer needs. The combined effect causes the gap to expand significantly compared to 2025.

(3) Evolution trend forecast (2026-2030)

(4) Short-term price targets (Q4 2026)

(5) Sectoral gap ranking (by strength/urgency/impact)

3. Global costs, prices, profits, and “how severe is the shortage”

1. Sulfur and sulfuric acid global cost-price-profit comparison table

2. Sulfur and sulfuric acid market price difference table (May 2026, 1,100 yuan/ton)

4. China-US price difference + overseas capacity / market share + expansion pace

1. Key overseas sulfur companies: capacity + market share + expansion pace table

2. Overseas key sulfuric acid capacity layout table

3. Global sulfur expansion cycle summary table

Summary: Supply and demand ledger (simple calculation)
Sudden disappearance on the supply side: Iran sulfur: -4 million tons/year, Middle East logistics restrictions: -3.5 million tons/year, Russia sulfur: -2 million tons/year (average annually), China sulfuric acid: -4 million tons/year.
Total: about 11 million tons of shortages per year, while global sulfur + sulfuric acid trade volume is around 40 million tons, with a shortage ratio of 25%-30%.
On the demand side: phosphatic fertilizer needs + Indonesia nickel expansion + Chile copper smelting needs, almost inelastic.

5. Beneficiary companies:

1. Leading refineries producing byproduct sulfur (with capacity, low cost, maximum price elasticity)

2. Monopolistic sulfur iron ore resource leader (the only one capable of proactive expansion, biggest beneficiary of sulfur substitution for acid production)

3. Leading gas flue acid producers (near-zero cost, earning from the market)

4. Electronic-grade / high-purity sulfuric acid + integrated phosphate fertilizer (high-end scarcity + rigid demand)

Summary: The sulfur resource crisis in 2026 has evolved from a “data gap” to a “real supply disruption.”
The firepower in the Middle East (supply), Indonesia’s capacity (demand), and China’s policies (exports) resonated in the first half of 2026, fulfilling your framework prediction into a global supply chain crisis.
The global sulfur shortage in 2026 exceeds 5.13 million tons +, with China’s shortage at 2.2 million tons; the sulfuric acid shortage exceeds 5 million tons +, with China’s at 1.2 million tons. The shortages will persist from 2026 to 2028, peaking in 2026.
Within this sector, there is our “big killer move”! Guess who it is? After industry development and exploration, the value becomes clearer! Only then can the probability of individual stock shocks decrease! That’s why we emphasize deep industry research before picking stocks, and why understanding this now explains why stocks fell sharply today while others rose.
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