Strong support on May 15th, short-term 4150 must not break! After a rebound trap, wave 3, wave 4 continues to fill the gap!

Good evening everyone, risks are coming faster. On May 14th, the major A-shares opened high and then declined with increased volume, dropping below support; in the morning, there was a trap to induce buying and protect the market, and in the afternoon, the gap was filled! The short-term indicator for this round of rally’s turning point is that on May 15th, 4150 cannot be broken, maintaining a range of 4150-4200 points for several days of consolidation, repeated repair, and rebounds; increased volume divergence releases short-term risks, and the market is consolidating and waiting for tech to flow back. [Taogu Ba]

Today, A-shares opened high and then declined with volume, and risks arrived earlier than expected. In the early session, leading stock Datang Power was halted, and a quick profit of 45% was taken, successfully avoiding further decline risk in the afternoon. The market shows typical “index and sentiment resonance divergence” characteristics: high-level stocks collectively震震, over 4,300 stocks declined across the board, short-term risks are being released, but the core logic of the rally remains intact. It is a short-term healthy adjustment driven by capital behavior. Today, aside from the precise exit point at Datang Power, I had planned to reduce positions to within 50% on Thursday afternoon, but the timing was too hasty. After Han Cable shares surged to the limit after Datang Power opened, I added some positions, which was a mistake. Today, I was on the wrong side of that trade.

(Main funds are flowing out, institutions are also selling, retail traders and speculators are running, only when main funds stop flowing out tomorrow will it truly be a rebound.)

1. Short-term gap filling, exhaustion signals confirmed, early morning quickly dipped to 4184 points, but never effectively broke below the key support at 4183 points; the market’s protective funds’ intention was clear. In the afternoon, the index briefly rose back above 4200 points but ultimately fell back, completing the exhaustion gap of this rally. The technical significance is clear: 4258 points become a short-term strong resistance, and the upward momentum is temporarily weakening. The adjustment has shifted from expectation to reality.

The essence of the adjustment is a superimposition of three capital behaviors: weekend risk-avoidance funds提前离场, profit-taking after continuous gains, and high-level thematic sentiment leading to selling. Hard-tech high-flyers plunged, and auxiliary sectors like power, robotics, and aerospace rotated chaotically. The market shows a pattern of “main line divergence, auxiliary line chaos,” with non-systemic risks. The medium-term rally logic (broad liquidity + hard-tech main line) remains intact.

2. Weak rebound on May 15th, range-bound consolidation, difficult to break new highs!

3. The weak rebound is the main trend, within the range of 4150-4200 points. Tomorrow, a惯性 decline is likely, followed by a weak rebound, with the core range being 4150 (strong support) to 4200 (strong resistance). Due to today’s volume-increasing bearish candle sentiment, the rebound will be limited, unable to break through 4258 points’ short-term new high, with a high probability of small positive or doji candles, continuing to digest divergence.

4. The time cycle is short-term sideways consolidation, digesting divergence and accumulating strength. After filling the gap, the market needs several trading days to “trade time for space” to digest profit-taking and divergence sentiment. The next three days of sideways consolidation are the best approach, fully releasing divergence and preparing for the main line to flow back; a unilateral rise or sharp decline is unlikely.

5. Sector opportunities: Tech main line waiting for flow back, auxiliary line position optimization.

Main line (tech): Divergence is an entry opportunity. After 1-2 days of full divergence release, focus on low-priced semiconductor, AI hardware, computing infrastructure stocks for flow back opportunities, with a clear and unchanged view.
Auxiliary line (power, robotics, aerospace): Only suitable for short-term trading, keep positions light, and promptly optimize non-main line stocks to avoid disorderly rotation and loss risks.

May 15th continuous board expectation:
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1 to 2: Gongjin Shares, Taihe New Materials, Luxiao Technology
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2 to 3: Weilong Shares,
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3 to 4: Wankao Shares

3. Future operations should avoid buying high and selling low, keep positions light, and wait for the main line to lead. In the short term, adhere to the principles of “reducing high positions, low positions, controlling仓位, and waiting for flow back”:

Use tomorrow’s weak rebound opportunity to further reduce positions in high-level thematic stocks, avoiding risks from divergence deepening; near 4150 support, small positions can be used to buy low in hard-tech stocks for flow back; overall仓位 should be kept within 50%, avoid heavy positions and chasing highs during divergence periods, and patiently wait for clear opportunities.

Today’s volume decline is short-term risk release, not the end of the upward trend; after filling the exhaustion gap, the market enters a consolidation and buildup phase. Tomorrow’s weak rebound is unlikely to break new highs; the main tone remains within the 4150-4200 point range. In the short term, 3-5 days of divergence digestion is expected, with medium-term tech flow back. The main logic remains unchanged. Be patient for low-level hard-tech pullbacks; the entire market is likely to follow a 3-wave 4 correction, with continued rebounds and repairs, ultimately filling another gap below, then another 3-wave 5 main rally. So, the market is temporarily adjusting, not ending the entire big trend!

Short-term risks are emerging; just control仓位 and don’t think about bottom-fishing tomorrow!

The above is personal understanding; do not criticize correctness or incorrectness. No stock recommendations are provided. The stock market involves risks; invest cautiously!