Index breaks through resistance, Tang Dynasty Power Generation 143.5 billion, the trend reversal begins to emerge

First praise, then watch, guaranteed to make a fortune! [Taogu Ba]

Yimillion in 2021 served as the trading department manager at a private equity firm, and in 2023, he started working independently from home, blending the emotional cycles of the游资 era with the essence of institutional strategies in today’s quantitative era, cultivating a top-down, macro-to-observation thinking system. He is skilled in macro index analysis, and over the past few years, he has never missed turning points in the index trend, and can identify leading stocks and rebound stocks according to different market styles.

**For those who like short-term trading, learn my start-up resonance!
For those who prefer swing trading, learn my divergence-based strength selection!

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1. Yesterday’s thought validation:

Yesterday, I provided two index feedbacks for your comparison:
(1) Just watch a point tomorrow, 4230~4240, avoid crossing into this range, just push through directly, and continue the happy rhythm.

(2) If choosing to pull back, consider slightly reducing positions. Because today’s low open gave enough opportunities for buyers to enter, if tomorrow lacks buying volume or if arbitrage selling pressure surges, it could lead to more selling. I’m not looking at risk, but rhythm-wise, it’s suitable to shrink positions.

You say you’re just observing casually, forgetting to be reminded by various bloggers? No problem.

Second morning reminder at 9:13:

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Look at the index, upward is worry-free, tech holdings or doing some T+ trades are fine, if it pulls back to the 4230-4240 range and starts tug-of-war, pay attention to whether the turnover ranking and recent high-tech popular stocks show signs of water falling, if so, you need to shrink your positions first and start braking on the long side.
**
Yesterday’s continuation of divergence + index opening low, those willing and able to buy basically entered yesterday, today mainly observe, no need to cut or open new positions every day.

Timing is more important than stock selection.

Third reminder at 9:28:**
A low-opened A-shares, with recent divergence, I’ve been calm about it, but if it opens too high, moves too fast, and divergence flows back the next day, if the flow back is followed by a high open today, then tech stocks must be looking at index and turnover weight feedback.

Fourth reminder at 9:52:

**Yesterday, I shared three nodes for everyone to focus on光通信, casually eating some meat. Today, it’s suitable to watch the index and high-weight stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Cambrian, considering whether to reduce positions. As for high-low switching, not everyone is suitable for that, if you want to do it, wait for divergence nodes from the past two days, and be cautious about opening new positions.

……………………………………

Despite these reminders, I find myself too verbose, yet I still see all kinds of frustrating comments in the comment section:
“Morning has something, I don’t know if I should sell now after such a big drop”
“Lucky in the morning, is the decline in trend stocks a buying point?”

Of course, there are also those with maximum intraday execution, @Bei’s Limit @Bu Chi Qin Cai 888 decisive in their actions, only with subjective discipline can one continue to survive. Including @Xia Chuo Mo, I see that their recent operations are not at all reckless, I hope next time more people can let me feature you on the wall!

As for sectors, yesterday’s ideas don’t need to be revisited, all clearly indicating no new positions today.

Start review!

2. Index structure:

The last 20 minutes of decline was a bit beyond expectations, with no resistance or signs of support, and such a break-down style of decline is more damaging today. We need to stay alert:

** Be cautious that the rebound trend since March 23 at 3794.68 may end here. The end of the rebound could mean a decline or sideways consolidation, gradually turning into a shrinking market, with decreasing volume, and the market leaning towards grouping, with tech speculation and short-term thematic grouping expected in Q2. More on that later.**

In the next two days, focus on defense, observe for signs of stabilization;
In the next two days, focus on defense, observe for signs of stabilization;
In the next two days, focus on defense, observe for signs of stabilization;

3. Sector review:

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(1) Chips:
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The overall feedback is poor, mainly because of the rally hitting the index adjustment, then rumors of Huang coming, a few top-tier large factories can buy H200, so short-term sentiment is negative for domestic substitution, and quantification will be tested later. Cambrian, Hygon Information, especially China Great Wall, directly hit the limit down, while more resilient are the ones mentioned in recent days, like Lanqi Technology.

In storage upstream materials, there are expectations of crossing over, tracked stocks include Xingfu Electronics and Dinglong Shares. The buying points should follow the index situation, don’t use logic to brainwash yourself at this moment, although today Xingfu Electronics has a lottery node.

Today’s semiconductor gains are in silicon carbide, driven by last night’s US stocks’ silicon photonics chip foundry TOWER surge, mainly because the position was low, with less recent gains, so those involved can handle arbitrage tomorrow.

Tianyue Advanced, with a 125% increase, is the leader in silicon carbide substrates.
Jingsheng Shares, with a 130% increase, leads in silicon carbide single crystal furnaces.
Hongyuan Green Energy, with a 2% increase, leads in silicon carbide slicing machines.

Compute leasing, Alibaba surged, Runjian Shares’ top position isn’t unexpected; after the environment’s peak and the previous days’ market profit accumulation, today’s high open was just a headshot, no complaints. Next time, know how to handle these situations.

(2) Communications:

**Yesterday’s market selected Tianfu Communication and Industrial Fulian, with the latter opening high and then falling all the way without support, Tianfu Communication benefited somewhat from the TOWER mentioned yesterday, which was also touched on in the morning. So during the morning decline, you can reduce but not rush to clear, since both morning and close yesterday increased observation. It’s natural to be optimistic until after 10 am when multiple pulses diverge and the index underperforms expectations, then it’s a good point to cut.

The highlight of the day was Zhongji Xuchuang in the afternoon, continuing to hit new highs against the trend, which is partly due to institutional grouping as analyzed earlier, with dips attracting buyers, similar to the previous emotional streaks with multiple leader stocks.

There are no other stocks performing well today, if the index doesn’t recover or only weakly recovers tomorrow, those who resisted today may not fare well, so continue to observe this sector tomorrow.

Repeatedly observed Juguang Technology, which still hit new highs this morning, with a small evening star at close. If it continues rolling, watch the five-day moving average, as the gains aren’t too high. Nvidia’s investment in Corning is here, and it’s just a matter of lagging behind, so if you’re cautious about index impact, it’s fine to delete it. As always, the position cost determines the confidence to hold.

(3) Commercial aerospace:

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Previously drew a resistance level that was never broken. China Satellite buried those who bought at the 10-day low, Xinwei Communication buried those betting on the five-day strong trend, with no profit cushion in the short term, so exit or reduce positions first.

Aerospace remains optimistic, unlike lithium batteries. When the index rebounds weakly after the April low resonance, I advise you to stop watching, but aerospace is different—I remain optimistic about its wave expectations, patiently waiting for the next entry point.

(4) Sentiment / Power:
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Yesterday and this morning, I also reminded everyone about Datang Power, the key is to avoid accelerating in the same direction during the relay. Besides during the super main rise, you can openly bet on the head, but otherwise, be cautious. Moreover, I’ve clearly told everyone that even if Datang Power hits the limit today and tomorrow is Friday with potential anomalies, buying on the board today has a very low risk-reward ratio.

The power sector opened weak today, and no one wanted to carefully wait for nodes to do the rebound, showing no confidence in the sustainability of this sector or the current nodes.

Below, the five-board Mona Lisa, real estate main board, semiconductor materials hype, large-cap stocks, trying to imitate Jin Tanglang. The three-board Hefei Urban Construction, with passive volume reduction at the end but not much, is mainly tied to storage themes and index, making it hard to stand alone. The three-board Chuan Technology, with a big surge in silicon, riding the wave, but avoid chasing chips that break through in a continuous manner.

Datang Power hit the limit today, with some high-low switching in the continuous boards, but a key point I taught you is that truly strong continuous boards can develop into market-driven, high-turnover plays, which tend to resonate with the index. If the index still has losses, even if a limit-up appears, it’s just a math puzzle, better to rest. Even if the trend stops abruptly, it won’t be driven by good themes during a decline.

Then, Datang Power may not be gone entirely; a technical point is that if the volume increases and the daily line stabilizes for two days without further volume spikes, there’s still a chance for multiple waves. If it drops to the floor, then those stubborn today should act decisively.

4. Today’s observation and tomorrow’s strategy:

(1) Today’s observation:
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Opening and pullback eliminated Tianfu Communication; if the index isn’t strong, exit first.

Increased observation on Juguang Technology at open, then during the high point, divergence in time-sharing and volume;

Late session, lottery in Xingfu Electronics, no explosive volume, just a gamble.

Lottery stocks are those with such structures, at the turning points the next day, strong means really strong, weak means really weak, no need to overthink.

But note, timing must be good, ideally with continuous divergence in the market + sectors, if it happens to go against the trend, tomorrow’s sector rebound could make it a leader or ride the sector’s big rise, with high cost-performance.

(2) Tomorrow’s strategy:

Focus on defense
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After today’s big drop with the head broken, those who dare to take profits, cut positions, or wait for signals are the true winners.

Holding high positions blindly or bottom-fishing is the easiest way to worsen the situation.

Watch US stocks tonight, aiming for 300, and I’ll give a detailed morning update tomorrow!

5. Casual chat:

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Today’s big bearish candle really hurt many. The market’s cruelty lies in the fact that when it falls, the first to collapse is never the account, but confidence.

Have you noticed that, facing today’s adjustment, some people are only slightly frowning, still able to eat and sleep normally at night, even losing money? Others look pale, lose appetite, and keep browsing forums for good news?……

The difference is never luck, but rhythm. Brothers who dared to reduce positions at high levels earlier are today still green, but feel at ease because they know they’ve secured most of their gains. Those who chased high and went all-in are suffering like being roasted over fire, every penny blood-stained, every plunge feels like a stab in the heart.

I’ve always told everyone, when your mentality starts to falter, most likely your rhythm is off. When volume is high at high levels, don’t hold heavy positions; when obvious divergence appears in the main line, don’t hesitate to reduce or switch.

Falling isn’t scary; what’s scary is continuing to operate the same way after falling. Today’s big candle is a punishment for some, a wake-up call for others. It exposes problems and filters out brothers who can endure and stick to the right rhythm.

In the coming days, you need to continue fighting with better rhythm and a calmer mindset.

Thanks for the support: @Xia Zhuomo @Wushan Ren @Jiayou Apo @Ye Zhan Tuan Zhang @Da Huli Air @Bei’s Limit @04 Wei Zhuang

**

Thanks for the tips: @Chao Gu Feng Jing Xian @Yu Shao 0735 @Bei’s Limit @China’s Large Aircraft @87 Da Lu @Yilu Chang Tong Wu @Mushan 7 @Kaisen Jin @Tianxia Cai @Meihao Shiguang 2024 @Wushan Ren @Fourteen Billion @Qiqiqi @Junzi Hao Qiu

6. Practical experience:
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Recommend new and old followers to carefully review the posts below, all are practical experiences summarized by Yimillion after 7 years of blood battles in the big A market, including the philosophy of the Dao and the tactics of the Shu.

【Jing】 Bull stocks with resonance days tend to be more sustainable. Yongding Shares & Dongshan Precision ( )
【Jing】 Dissecting the recovery cycles of Yunnan Energy Control and Huasheng Tiancheng & the index decline rhythm ( )
【Jing】 Aerospace development, water fishery countermeasures, rebound stages & review table templates ( )
【Jing】 Dissecting the entry methods of Pingtan Development, Fulong Mate, transformer companies, and other strong stocks ( )
【Jing】 Why do you still suffer stable losses after years of short-term trading? ( )
【Jing】 Review of key points for opening positions ( )
【Jing】 Market rotation operation methods, buy/sell timing, and stock selection teaching ( )
【Jing】 Precisely grasp selling points, making profit-taking and stop-loss simple ( )
【Jing】 Weekly summary & grouping tips ( )
【Jing】 Details win (1): Efficient market watching techniques analysis ( )
【Jing】 Details win (2): How to review efficiently ( )
【Jing】 Methods to control drawdown ( )
【Jing】 How to analyze the market in detail ( )
【Jing】 Some experiences that helped me quickly rise to游资 level (1) ( )
【Jing】 Some experiences that helped me quickly rise to游资 level (2) ( )
【Jing】 Some experiences that helped me quickly rise to游资 level (3) ( )