Traders See Higher Likelihood of Rate Hike Than Cut After Powell's Speech

On April 30, following Powell’s speech, Wall Street traders believe the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year is slightly higher than that of lowering them, as policymakers signaled a hawkish stance. Futures markets indicate an 11% probability of a rate hike, up from 5% earlier on Wednesday and zero on Tuesday, while the probability of a rate cut stands at about 2%. Although the Fed maintained language suggesting a greater likelihood of a rate cut, three Federal Reserve presidents opposed this decision, with Chairman Powell stating that this language may soon be abandoned as inflation persists.