I just came across something fascinating that shows how creatively market observers are searching for alternative signals of geopolitical risks. The so-called Pizza Index has once again attracted attention on March 3rd – and this time with remarkable figures.

Observations from the Domino's branch near the Pentagon indicated an increase in orders to 227 percent of the normal level that Monday evening. It sounds absurd, but there is actually a logic behind it. The system is based on the assumption that if there is suddenly increased operational activity at the Pentagon – for example, due to international crises – the staff is working overtime. And who works overtime? Someone ordering pizza.

What makes the Pizza Index particularly interesting: it has indeed shown unusual patterns before major military actions in the past. In January, prior to the operation against Venezuela, and during earlier tensions with Iran, similar anomalies were observed. Some analysts now consider this data an unconventional early warning signal for geopolitical risks.

Of course, all of this is more art than exact science. But it shows how the market tries to read between the lines. The U.S. government has not yet commented on the military movements that could be behind this Pizza Index signal. Currently, observers are focusing on potential escalations in the Middle East and trying to decode the next signals – whether from the Pizza Index or elsewhere. Interesting times for everyone who likes to look beyond the horizon.