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It's mainly about Bitcoin's sentiment; it would be best if the MA200 can break through. In half a month, even if the price remains volatile, the MA120 will also turn upward, confirming a bullish reversal.
Now it's just waiting to stabilize above the channel ➕ and for the MA120 to turn upward ➕ and break through the MA200. Once that happens, the bull market will be confirmed.
What I'm worried about is repeated volatility followed by a decline, which would be disastrous—seeing $50,000 again and stopping all long positions. I think the probability of this scenario is decreasing, maybe only 10%.
The US stock market is so strong that Bitcoin's upcoming cycle will follow the US economy and US stocks; there's no reason for it to decline so much anymore.