Looking at the Bitcoin MVRV indicator, a really interesting signal is emerging. As of yesterday, the MVRV dropped to 1.1, which is the lowest trading level since early 2023. The current price is around $81,000, so compared to that, it has really come down a lot.

The closer the MVRV gets to 1.0, the more it indicates the market is entering an undervalued zone, and historically, this point has often coincided with cycle bottoms. There’s data showing that after the MVRV fell below 1.0 in early 2023, Bitcoin's price increased by over 500%. Since that was around $23,000, it makes sense.

However, some believe this cycle might be different. Last October’s peak saw the MVRV reach 2.28, whereas at extreme cycle tops like in 2017 or 2021, it exceeded 3.5. The fact that it closed lower this time is a somewhat unusual pattern.

On-chain data shows even stronger signals. The MVRV Adaptive Z-Score has fallen to -2.66, which is lower than during the 2015 bear market, the 2018 bottom, or the 2022 capitulation phase. Long-term holders sold 245,000 BTC in a single day on February 6, which is similar to the distribution speed seen before past cycle bottoms. This is truly an extreme bearish signal.

But not all analysts see this as an immediate bottom signal. Some expect prices could fall further into Q4 2026, and others target $40k to $50k. Remember, indicators like MVRV are just one of many signals, and they don’t tell you the exact timing. Historically, such extreme levels have often continued to decline for a while afterward.