#GateSquareMayTradingShare

Bear or Buyer? Solana’s 21% Downtrend Rally Meets Strong Defense

Solana Price
SOLUSD
is currently at US$91.22 with a double top pattern indicating a potential 21% breakdown down to below US$76.66. Even so, a sharp surge in exchange outflows and demand walls based on buy prices are starting to become the first line of defense.

The current bearish technical structure now meets a 356% surge in exchange outflows since May 2, along with buy-price (cost basis) clusters concentrated between US$85 and US$89. This creates a clear decision for SOL holders: win or lose directly.

Solana Price Forms Double Top Pattern Supported by Volume Weakening and Cost Basis Walls

Solana’s daily chart shows a double top pattern. The peaks occurred at US$97.66 at the end of March and US$98.35 on May 12. Between the two peaks, the price moved within a narrow range. Buying volume has also declined significantly—an environment that usually signals peak formation due to weakening buyer confidence.

A drop below the pattern’s neckline at US$76.66 will trigger a 21% downside target. However, this decline will not happen easily. There are several strong buy-price clusters between the current price and the neckline, and each of these clusters could act as support.

Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution data, which maps the price at which SOL holders bought their positions, shows that the largest cost basis cluster sits between US$85.66 and US$86.22, where 13,734,525 SOL were bought.

There is one smaller but still strong cluster between US$88.49 and US$89.07, containing 8,804,899 SOL. This wall could become the first line of defense for SOL.

For this bearish pattern to truly materialize, both clusters must be broken in sequence. Volume is starting to decline, and the pattern is weakening. But the holder wall within the favorable cost basis zone has the potential to prevent sharp price drops.

The ability of the cost basis wall to hold depends on real-time exchange flow behavior, which has recently turned strongly bullish.

Exchange Outflows Up 356% as Buyers Maintain the Pattern

Solana’s exchange net position change—i.e., the net movement of SOL into and out of exchanges—has suddenly reversed to very negative in recent days since May 2. Stable inflows dominated April, but they have now been replaced by aggressive outflows.

On May 2, this metric was minus 501,807 SOL, an outflow that was still relatively small. However, by May 13, the number fell deeper to minus 2,286,298 SOL, meaning a 356% surge in exchange outflows in just two weeks.

Such a large net outflow indicates accumulation. Holders are moving SOL out of exchanges and, most likely, into personal wallets, reducing the supply readily available to sell into the market and typically slowing down a technical breakdown. This outflow momentum also aligns with the price rally approaching the second peak at US$98, showing buyers are defending the price even as the bearish pattern begins to form.

This exchange data turns the technical pattern into a real duel. The double top pattern indeed wants to push the price downward. But the exchange flow data does not agree, and the cost basis walls still back up buyers. With the weakening pattern facing the strength of exchange outflows, the price chart is now the main determinant of the next direction.

Solana Price Levels Show a Critical Turning Point

Solana’s price is currently at US$91.22, still above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average
E
EMA
at US$89.54, emphasizing recent prices, and the 50-day EMA at US$88.13. These two averages become the first line of defense; their positions are very close to the initial cost basis cluster at US$88.49 to US$89.07.

If SOL’s daily price closes below the 50-day exponential moving average
E
EMA,
then the price will move toward the Fibonacci 0.618 zone. This strong technical level at US$84.96 sits directly inside the heaviest cost basis cluster at US$85.66 to US$86.22. Two layers of support—on the technical side and on-chain—become the strongest defenses before reaching the neckline.

If there is a clean breakout out of that cluster, then the price will open the way toward Fibonacci 0.786 at US$81.31, and then to the neckline at US$76.66. If the neckline is also broken, the next leg of the decline targets US$63.25 and US$60.23 as deeper supports.

For the bearish scenario to weaken, SOL must return to US$93.25 (Fibonacci 0.236). To fully invalidate the pattern, the daily price must close above US$98.37, erasing the second peak.

The EMA cluster at US$88.13 is the divider between a slow move toward the breakdown at US$76.66 and a potential rebound to US$93.25, which could flip the bearish scenario.