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Been diving into some old market theory lately, and there's this fascinating framework from Samuel Benner back in 1875 that still gets people talking. He mapped out these periods when to make money based on economic cycles – basically breaking markets into three distinct patterns that supposedly repeat every couple decades.
So here's the interesting part. Benner identified what he called panic years – roughly every 18 to 20 years – where financial crises and market collapses tend to happen. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and forward to 2035, 2053. His theory suggests these are the years you really need to watch your step and avoid panic selling. Easy to say, hard to do when everything's crashing, right?
Then there are the boom years – the good times when prices are rising and markets are recovering. These are your windows to actually exit positions and lock in profits. Years like 1928, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and coming up 2026, 2034, 2043. If you're thinking about periods when to make money by selling, these are supposedly it.
The third piece is the recession and decline periods – when prices are bottomed out and the economy's struggling. 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032, 2040, 2050, 2059. Benner's logic was simple: buy when everything's cheap, hold through the boom, then sell. That's the periods when to make money if you can actually time it right.
The framework boils down to a pretty straightforward strategy – accumulate during downturns, wait for the recovery, sell into strength, prepare for the next panic. But here's the thing: this is based on historical patterns and cyclical thinking, not some immutable law. Real markets get hit by politics, wars, technological disruption, all kinds of unpredictable factors that can throw the whole timeline off.
That said, understanding these historical periods when to make money gives you a useful mental model for thinking about long-term market behavior. Whether you believe Benner's exact cycle or not, the principle of buying low and selling high during predictable phases is worth keeping in your toolkit.