The U.S. long-term balance sheet reduction highlights high-dividend value; U.S. Treasury demand in April was insufficient; domestic industrial metals diverged, lithium battery prices rose—0514 Macro Dehydration

Market expectations for the Voss policy are fully priced in. Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations dominate, directly benefiting the broad growth style of A-shares, while the defensive dividend style faces relatively more pressure. But in the long run, the Voss easing-driven and gradual balance-sheet reduction will lift the term premium on U.S. Treasuries and long-end interest rates, suppressing growth-stock valuations; the advantages of high-dividend dividend-style and undervalued value-style will become more prominent.

The issuance pace and scale of interest-bearing U.S. Treasuries remain unchanged, and the financing scale of short-term Treasury bills continues to increase. Total demand for U.S. Treasuries in April could not fully absorb the supply, and overseas entities remain the main source of demand. The Federal Reserve has signaled that, starting in May, the monthly RMP bond-purchase size will be reduced to 25 billion dollars.

Domestic upstream crude oil prices have clearly fallen back, precious metals have rebounded, and industrial metal prices have diverged. In the midstream segment, lithium battery raw-material prices have risen, and technology hardware prices continue to increase. On the downstream side, the transaction area of second-hand homes increased by 8.2% year over year, while demand for long-distance travel declined year over year.