The core concept of game theory is never let your chips go to zero.

The so-called "betting nine out of ten" means you haven't calculated probabilities, haven't controlled your position size, and as long as the casino isn't cheating or rigged, and it's purely governed by probability, betting according to mathematical formulas and controlling your position size, you can win.

If you always go all-in, even if you win a hundred times, just one loss can wipe you out.

100 Kelly Formula Tips:

The core of the Kelly formula is to determine the optimal position size through mathematical calculation to maximize long-term profits and avoid bankruptcy risk. Here are some tips and principles based on the Kelly formula to help understand and apply:

Core Tips

Calculate the win rate first, then look at the odds; only increase position after a stable reversal.
Use the Kelly formula as a base for your position; executing it 80% of the time is safer.
Always keep some principal remaining, so even with consecutive losses, you can recover.

Application Principles

Cognition first: evaluate your advantage (edge) before deciding on the bet size to avoid emotional decisions.

Reject all-in bets: even with a high win rate, never go all-in to prevent a single loss from destroying your principal.

Pursue compound interest: focus on long-term growth rather than single wins, ensuring you stay at the table.

Conservative estimates: win rate and odds are estimates; in practice, apply discounts (like a half-Kelly strategy).

Dynamic adjustment: regularly revise win rate and odds based on market changes and new information, and recalculate your position size.

These tips and principles aim to translate the mathematical logic of the Kelly formula into practical decision-making guides, helping investors manage risk, restrain desires, and achieve steady growth.