#Gate广场五月交易分享

Today’s Bitcoin Market Recap

## 1. Market Review

BTC fell 1.43% today. The price dropped from $80,562 to around $79,355, with the intraday low touching $78,758. After yesterday’s CPI data came in above expectations, today’s PPI data again blew past forecasts (core PPI month-over-month rose 1%, far exceeding the 0.3% expectation). Two consecutive days of inflationary pressure have left BTC

## 2. Technical Analysis

The 3-day comprehensive signal is still bullish, and the daily MA arrangement remains in a bullish structure.

However, the 4-hour CCI = -111 and the 15-minute CCI = -161 indicate multi-timeframe oversold conditions, and rebound demand is building.

The price has broken below all major moving averages (MA7/30/120/200), and the moving-average system has temporarily turned bearish.

Daily SAR = 82,828, which is far above the current price. Trend confirmation requires a rebound back above $82,828.

Leverage positioning is balanced (funding rates are low, and OI deleveraging has been completed), with no risk of long crowding.

## 3. Impact from News

This week’s two major catalysts ⚠️:

- **PPI surges again (May 14):** Core PPI month-over-month rose 1% (far above the 0.3% expectation, the largest increase since March 2022), and year-over-year rose 5.2% (above the 4.3% expectation). Two consecutive days of inflation running hotter than expected have sharply raised rate-hike expectations—CME FedWatch shows the year-end rate-hike probability rising from 1% one week ago to 30%.

- **Thursday: Clarity Act committee vote—** The bill has already passed with 13 votes (the required number). Polymarket shows a 65% probability of passage. Citi directly ties its $143,000 BTC target to this.

- **Friday: Warsh officially takes office as Federal Reserve Chair—** a crypto-friendly leader who previously referred to BTC as “the new gold.”

BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous large net outflows (May 13: $635 million; BlackRock IBIT outflow: $285 million).

## 4. Key Levels:

**Support:** $79,198 (1-hour SAR), $78,758 (today’s low), $78,000 (21-week EMA strong support zone)

**Resistance:** $80,000 (psychological level), $82,000–$85,800 (CME gap + key resistance zone)

## 5. Market Outlook:

Tonight’s vote on the **CLARITY Act** is the decisive factor for the short term. If it passes tonight, you can consider going long in the short term, with targets looking above 82,000. If the bill is not passed or is delayed, Bitcoin will fall again. If it drops below $78,000, it will trigger a new round of downside—then you can take a short position in line with the move.

## 6. Trading Recommendations

**For long position holders:** Continue holding. $78,000 is the key defense line (4-hour oversold + 21-week EMA). If it breaks, consider reducing positions.

**For short position holders:** Close at the current price, and wait to take action again after the outcome of the CLARITY Act vote is released.

**For those on the sidelines:** Lightly go long at the current price, and set a defensive stop-loss at $78,000.