Iran cluster, May 14. The summit happened. Iran ignored it.

Iranian boats boarded a ship 38 miles off Fujairah this morning, heading back to Iranian waters. A few hours later, someone hit a South Korean cargo ship further into the strait. Seoul: "we rule out any party other than Iran being behind the attack."
All this while Trump sat across from Xi at the Great Hall of the People.
Polymarket priced one bet going into this summit. China is Iran's biggest oil buyer, with leverage Trump doesn't have. Pull the spigot, the strait reopens.
That was the trade.
The White House issued the readout a few hours ago. Three things Trump and Xi agreed on:
1. The Strait of Hormuz must stay open.
2. Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.
3. China will buy more American oil.
Wang Yi and Rubio added their own joint line: no country can charge tolls in international waters. Direct shot at Iran's new transit-fee regime.
China sided publicly with the US. Iran answered with ship seizures inside the same news cycle. I was watching the wires when the second hit landed.
China was the only realistic mediator inside the summer. Pakistan is slower. Direct US-Iran talks are stuck, and there's no third option that fits before late summer.
The peace bet was the China bet. Xi publicly buried it this morning.
Operation Sledgehammer
NBC ran the story while the summit was live. The working name for the next phase of the Iran war, if the ceasefire collapses, is "Operation Sledgehammer." The point of the rename is to reset the 60-day War Powers clock from zero. Trump can run another bombing campaign without going back to Congress.
Pentagon is dusting off the kinetic option. Paperwork pre-staged.
Three things to watch.
1. Project Freedom formally ordered.
2. A commercial ship hit hard enough to make front pages. The Fujairah seizure today gets close.
3. Iran formally walks away from talks.
None have fired yet. When they do, expect 15-20 point moves, not 5.
Where I'm short the tape
Senate narrowly confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair this morning. PPI printed 6% year-over-year, fastest pace since 2022, driven by war-energy feeding through freight costs. 10-year Treasury yields hit the highest since July. Traders are pricing rate hikes next year, not cuts.
I'm short Fed 0-cuts. I'm betting the Fed cuts at least once.
The bond market is screaming the opposite at me.
An S-tier whale put $35k YES at $0.69 this week. Opposite my bet, at near-current price. Calibrated money.
I don't love this position right now. War-energy plus Warsh plus hot CPI plus hot PPI tells one cohesive story. I'm betting against it.
What I'm watching next 48 hours
Brent sustained under $98. That's the real "Iran is easing" signal. Brent's at $106.
Pakistani foreign minister flying to Tehran or Riyadh or Washington. Highest-confidence pre-signal that someone is brokering anything real. Nothing on the wires yet.
Iran-specific language in tomorrow's joint Trump-Xi statement. Probably not coming. Today's readout already had nothing on Iran.
Cisco printed +20% after-hours. AI FOMO is sucking attention away from the war. Softens oil through the macro channel. Doesn't touch the geopolitical one. Don't confuse them.
The frame
China was the lever. Xi pulled it the other way.
Iran responded with attacks. The Pentagon sharpened the kinetic option. Powell hands the Fed to a man the bond market reads as more hawkish, into the hottest PPI in four years.
Day 77. The summit didn't change the trajectory. It clarified it.