Bitunix Analyst: Global inflation continues to rise, central banks' policies are beginning to shift hawkish, and the market is re-pricing "long-term high interest rates"

Mars Finance News, May 14 — Market risk appetite has begun to shift noticeably. The US April PPI increased by 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 6% year-over-year, both hitting the largest gains since 2022, indicating that corporate cost pressures are rapidly transmitting to consumers. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official Collins publicly stated that if inflation cannot be effectively cooled, further rate hikes are not ruled out, signaling that market expectations for a rate cut cycle in 2026 are being quickly revised. Morgan Stanley also warned that US inflation may peak between May and June, as the triple pressures of energy, tariffs, and housing costs are simultaneously pushing up prices.

Apart from the US, the Bank of Japan has also begun to signal a stronger policy shift. BOJ member Masayoshi Amamiya officially shifted from dovish to hawkish, advocating that if the economy does not show significant decline, interest rate hikes should be considered sooner. The market has currently priced in about a 75% chance of a rate hike in June, prompting the yen to rebound rapidly. This reflects the global major central banks’ policy direction, gradually shifting from the previous “waiting to cut rates” to “redefending against re-inflation.” Especially after ongoing tensions in Iran pushed energy prices higher, markets are beginning to worry that energy-driven inflation may once again spread to global manufacturing, logistics, and consumption chains.

In terms of risk assets, the market structure shows clear differentiation. Nvidia, Apple, and Google all hit record highs simultaneously, indicating that AI and large tech stocks continue to attract global capital. However, this concentration of funds also means the market relies on a few high-liquidity core assets to support risk sentiment. On the other hand, OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, reflecting lingering concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth. Currently, the market is under a complex environment of “high inflation plus growth slowdown.”

In the crypto market, BTC remains in a high-level oscillation structure, but the market is beginning to reassess whether the prolonged high interest rates will compress the valuation space for risk assets. Recently, capital has not significantly withdrawn from crypto markets, but liquidity is more concentrated in BTC and major mainstream assets, while the momentum for small and mid-cap altcoins continues to decline. If US inflation data and energy prices continue to heat up, the market will start to reevaluate the Federal Reserve’s liquidity cycle, at which point crypto market volatility and liquidation risks may expand simultaneously.