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Bitcoin falls below $80k! Will it drop further? Bipartisan talks collapse, the "Clarity Act" stalls?

On the evening of May 14th, Beijing time, at 10:30 PM (tonight), the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold an official debate and markup vote on this 309-page "Clarity Act" in Room 538 of the Dirksen Office Building!

Just before the Senate Banking Committee's vote, over 100 amendments flooded in, and negotiations between the two parties remain fiercely contested over regulatory details. Labor unions, the banking industry, Senator Warren, and the White House are all applying pressure, with all conflicts erupting within this 24-hour window.

99% of issues resolved

Republican lead negotiator and Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis issued a statement after negotiations broke down, highlighting the core of this deadlock:

"Ultimately, we have reached agreement on 99% of the bill. I hope my colleagues on the other side will work with me to resolve the remaining 1% after the bill passes through the committee. Otherwise, if another FTX event happens, we can only blame ourselves."

The Republicans have decided to push for a vote first, leaving the remaining disagreements to be handled by the full Senate.

What is that remaining 1%?

There are mainly two points of disagreement.

Blanket moral clauses

The full text of the 309-page bill contains no restrictions on behaviors of U.S. senior government officials profiting from the crypto industry.

Democratic Senators Adam Schiff and Ruben Gallego have called for adding clauses to restrict the President’s family from profiting from crypto regulation; meanwhile, White House Digital Asset Committee Executive Director Patrick Witt has explicitly stated opposition to any clauses targeting specific individuals or families.

BRCA clause vs. AML enforcement conflict

The "Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act" (BRCA) aims to prevent non-custodial software developers and blockchain infrastructure providers from being prosecuted for violations of remittance-related laws.

Senator Jack Reed proposed an amendment to completely delete the BRCA clause, citing concerns that it could create blind spots for anti-money laundering enforcement.

Tonight at 10:30 PM, the final vote on the "Clarity Act"

At 10:30 AM Eastern Time on May 14th, which is tonight at 10:30 PM Beijing time, the Senate Banking Committee will officially move into the markup vote phase for the "Clarity Act."

This is a race against time in a political showdown. As night falls, the late-night vote will enter its most intense phase. The review involves over 100 amendments, and the process could last several hours, full of suspense and negotiations. The final voting results are expected to be announced in the early hours of May 15th Beijing time, providing a clear signal to the entire market.

According to the latest data from prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the "Clarity Act" becoming law by 2026 has risen to 66%, up significantly from 46% in early May.

However, risks remain. Opposition from both parties in the U.S. could unite to apply pressure, amendments are frequent, and the Senate requires a 60-vote supermajority—each step could impact the bill’s prospects.

Market reaction to this

Massive outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, uncertainty over the "Clarity Act" dampens investor sentiment!

During the U.S. stock trading session on the evening of May 13th, Wall Street’s Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced large-scale net outflows, totaling up to $630 million, sparking market concerns.

Among them, BlackRock’s spot ETF—IBIT—saw a single-day net outflow of $285 million, the largest in recent weeks.

As a result, Bitcoin’s price directly broke below the key short-term support level of $80,000!

Prior to this, Bitcoin’s price had been consolidating in the $80,000 to $82,000 range with relatively low volatility. But with the details of the "Clarity Act" amendments disclosed, the market found the clauses more stringent than expected, and short-term speculative funds immediately moved to safe-haven exits.

Therefore, this uncertainty makes institutional fund managers on Wall Street more likely to redeem their spot ETF holdings as a rational move, a cautious response to market risks and a way to protect their investment portfolios.