#Gate广场五月交易分享

Real-time Crude Oil Market Observation - Bad News Incoming, Up and Down Price Fluctuations

Today, crude oil experienced wide-range fluctuations, just moments ago suddenly spiking up and down, with the lowest dropping to $99.60, then rebounding sharply, closing at $102.35. Currently, it’s trading at $101. Analyzing the reasons behind this, it may be due to these two pieces of bad news:

1. According to Iranian state media, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that since Wednesday evening, about 30 ships have been passing through the Strait of Hormuz with Tehran’s permission. This suggests that the Strait of Hormuz may resume limited navigation, slightly easing the oil export crisis.

2. OPEC+ plans to restore all production cuts by the end of September. Although many of the increased outputs are still on paper, key members of OPEC+ plan to continue pushing for increased quotas in the coming months, aiming to complete the final part of the previously suspended capacity recovery by the end of September. OPEC+ has already officially agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million barrels per day cut implemented in 2023. This is a direct bearish signal, but due to the Iran war causing disruptions in Persian Gulf exports, most major members are actually unable to fully realize these increases. So, the bearish impact seems significant but limited in damage. This might be why the market is only experiencing short-term turbulence without a unilateral decline.

Currently, aside from the new developments in the US-Iran conflict and progress in Strait of Hormuz navigation, other news is unlikely to have a major negative impact on crude oil prices. Regarding oil prices, I still hold a short-term view of volatility and a long-term bearish outlook. Above $100, one can consider short positions with targets around $90. Finally, I wish everyone prosperity every day!