#Gate广场五月交易分享

My intraday spot bottom-fishing plan for SIREN (short-term)

1. Market Review

SIREN current price $0.6016, a 49.75% crash in 24 hours.
In just 8 hours, it plummeted from $1.15 to $0.5032, a drop of over 56%.
24h high $1.2584, low $0.5032.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

Technical signals show extreme oversold conditions, almost all indicators are issuing strong "oversold rebound" signals.

4-hour level: CCI reading -470.11, an extremely rare extreme oversold value.
Typically, CCI below -100 is considered oversold, below -200 is serious oversold, and -470 far exceeds any standard oversold level.
Historically, when CCI drops to such extremes, prices almost inevitably experience a technical rebound, but the magnitude and duration are highly uncertain.
WR reading -97.17, also in an extreme oversold zone.
ADX reading 34.79, with strong downward momentum, indicating the decline is not disorderly but has a clear direction.

1-hour level: CCI -132.39, severely oversold;
WR -93.02, extremely oversold;
ADX 57.93, with very strong trend momentum (ADX over 50 usually indicates a very strong trend),
showing the 1-hour downward momentum is extremely vigorous.
Moving averages are in a bearish (short) alignment, with a clear bearish trend on the 1-hour chart.
SAR at $0.9759, far above the current price of about $0.374, with the short-term stop-loss line above, indicating a fully dominant bearish trend.

15-minute level: CCI -90.27, close to oversold but not severely;
WR -68.47, leaning toward oversold;
ADX 30.51, moderate trend momentum;
Moving averages in a bearish (short) alignment, with a bearish bias on the 15-minute chart;
SAR at $0.6223, above the current price by about $0.02.

The overall daily chart signal is bullish, with the daily RSI marked as oversold.
This means that before the crash, the daily trend was actually leaning bullish.
The surge on May 8-9 pushed the daily chart into a bullish state, and today’s sharp decline is just a severe correction of the previous rally.

3. Key Levels

Key support levels: $0.5032 (24-hour low, confirmed bottom),
$0.50 (psychological threshold),
$0.45 (bottom-fishing failure critical point, all stops below),
$0.40 (extreme downside probe, absolutely not for bottom-fishing).

Key resistance levels: $0.55 (15-minute closing area),
$0.62 (15-minute SAR),
$0.65 (first rebound target + psychological threshold),
$0.70 (second rebound target + previous support turned resistance),
$0.80 (third rebound target + dead cat bounce confirmation zone),
$0.98 (1-hour SAR, extremely distant, unlikely to reach in the short term).

4. Specific Trading Plan

First trade: When the price falls back to around $0.50 - $0.52 and shows stabilization signals (such as three consecutive 15-minute bullish candles, volume picking up, CCI rising from lows), attempt a very small long position, only 5% of total funds,
target $0.65, stop-loss at $0.45.
Expected profit about $0.13, risk-reward ratio approximately 2.6:1.
Note: Position must be extremely small, within 5%, as this is a tentative bottom-fishing, not a confidence build-up.

Second trade: If the price rebounds from around $0.50 to the $0.55 - $0.58 zone and stabilizes (without falling back), slightly increase the position, total 8%,
target $0.70, stop-loss at $0.50.
Expected profit about $0.12, risk-reward ratio about 2:1.

Third trade: If the rebound confirms and the price breaks above $0.65, add a light position, total 7%,
target $0.80, stop-loss at $0.55.
Expected profit about $0.15, risk-reward ratio about 1.5:1.

Under the extreme oversold rebound plan, total position should not exceed 20%, with a daily profit target of about 15%-30% (based on total capital).
Core principle: very small tentative positions, profit from rebounds, then gradually reduce positions, not expecting a long-term reversal.
Extreme oversold rebound tentative bottom-fishing.

5. Risk Control and Capital Management

Regarding position management, since SIREN is an extremely volatile coin, position management must be very conservative.
Total bottom-fishing positions should not exceed 20% of total funds, and single position should not exceed 5%.
This is an iron rule, non-negotiable.

Also, no more than 3 open long positions at a time (batch tentative entries), with a maximum intraday drawdown of no more than 2% of total funds (note: not 5%, as extremely volatile coins require stricter stop-loss).
When daily profit reaches 5% of total funds, consider closing all positions for profit.

Stop-loss discipline must be strictly enforced with five hard rules:

1. Technical stop-loss — if the price falls below $0.45, confirm bottom-fishing failure, exit all positions, no second attempt.
If it falls below $0.50, reduce to half position.
If it rebounds to $0.65 and then falls back below $0.55, exit all, confirming a dead cat bounce.

2. Time stop-loss — if holding for over 4 hours without signs of rebound (price still below $0.55), actively reduce to below 2%, wait and observe.

3. Capital stop-loss — if a single loss reaches 2% of the principal (note: not 3%, as extremely volatile coins need stricter stops), unconditionally exit.

4. Trailing stop-loss — after a 10% profit (about $0.06), move stop-loss to break-even (cost basis); after 20% profit (about $0.12), move stop-loss to 10% profit level, locking in gains.

5. Partial profit-taking —
reduce 50% when rebounding to $0.65;
reduce 70% at $0.70;
consider closing all at $0.80.
No long-term expectation, take profit on rebounds and exit.