Crude Oil Outlook: Triangle Formation Points to Final Recovery Before Larger Decline

Crude oil has remained trapped inside a broad corrective structure since the explosive rally toward the 119 region in early March. After reaching that peak, the market printed a sharp impulsive decline in wave A, followed by a corrective three-wave rebound that stalled near the 118.55 resistance zone.

During the first half of April, oil prices experienced another aggressive selloff. However, bearish momentum faded around the 82 support area, where buyers managed to stabilize the market and trigger a fresh recovery attempt. Because of this rebound, the structure now appears less consistent with a straightforward wave C collapse and more aligned with a complex consolidation phase.

At this stage, the market is increasingly pointing toward a triangle correction scenario. In Elliott Wave structure, triangles usually develop before the final move of a corrective sequence and often signal temporary consolidation before the dominant trend resumes.

The recent weakness is likely part of a wave D decline, which may already be nearing completion. If this interpretation remains valid, crude oil could soon transition into the final wave E recovery phase.

Under this scenario, prices may continue recovering toward the 103–108 resistance region in the near term before sellers regain broader control of the market.

Despite the possibility of another upside leg, the larger structure still carries bearish implications. Once the wave E rebound is completed, downside pressure is expected to return, particularly if crude oil breaks below the major red trendline support.

A confirmed breakdown could expose the market to another decline toward the 87 gap area, with the possibility of even deeper losses if bearish momentum accelerates further.

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