$79,000$BTC , are you panicking?

ETF outflows of $630 million in a single day, CPI hitting 3.8%, leverage liquidations of 82k — but just now, RSI dropped to 11.9, plunging into the "most oversold in history" zone, then sharply rebounded to $79,700.
Is this wave a end to the correction, or the last escape window before a crash?
First look at the surface: bad news bombardment, price not collapsing
In the past 24 hours, down 1.8%, retreating from the high of 82k, market cap of 1.6 trillion, daily trading volume over 16k. The candlestick chart shows: high-level range-bound oscillation, bouncing between 79k-82k, neither breaking previous high nor previous low.
First thing: ETF outflows of $630 million in one day, but last week net inflow exceeded $700 million.
On May 13, indeed lost $630 million, media exaggerated wildly. But look back one week: net inflow of $79k. Looking further back cumulatively: ETF total inflows have exceeded $59 billion.
MicroStrategy bought more, holding up to 816,000 BTC.
Second thing: CPI at 3.8% is driven by energy prices soaring, not demand-driven inflation.
Iran conflict caused gasoline to rise 46%, which is a supply shock, not an overheating economy. The Federal Reserve itself is aware — at the April FOMC, four members opposed maintaining interest rates, the most dissent since 1992. Powell says "no rate cuts," but his body is honest: the probability of rate cuts before July is priced out, but if oil prices fall back, expectations will instantly reverse.
Third thing: RSI dropped to 11.9, the most extreme oversold since 2024.
Every time RSI falls below 20, the average rebound over the next three months is over 40%. Today, during intraday trading, it hit around 78,800, and after RSI bottomed out, it immediately bounced back to 79,700, with buying already entering.
Key level: 79,700, just over 1,000 dollars from strong support.
Resistance above: 80,500 (short-term critical line) → 82,946 (200-day EMA) → 85k → 90k-97k.
Support below: 78k-76,300 (strong support zone) → 73,300 → 68k-61k (extreme scenario).
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 78,000-76,500 to buy in batches, stop loss at 75,800 (exit if broken), first target 80,500, second target 85,000.
Swing traders:
Wait until daily volume confirms stabilization above 80,500 before entering, stop loss at 78,000, target 85k-87k. After breakout confirmation, add positions, use dynamic take profit.
Long-term believers:
Invest blindly below 78k. Add to positions every 5% dip. End-of-2026 target of 90k-97k or higher, betting on inflation easing + ETF continued inflows + regulatory implementation. If weekly close below 73k and ETF outflows for four consecutive weeks, decisively reduce positions for defense.