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The US inflation revival race begins! PPI soars 6%, Powell's CPU is about to overheat
US April PPI year-over-year 6%, after this data came out, the market's first reaction was not analysis, but: "Huh? Here we go again?"
Because in the past few months, everyone thought inflation had been tamed by the Federal Reserve.
But now it looks like inflation not only didn't subside, it secretly leveled up successfully.
The biggest scary point of the PPI indicator is that it belongs to "upstream prices." What does that mean? Factory, energy, transportation, raw materials are all rising.
And there's a hard rule in the business world: bosses never absorb costs themselves.
So today’s PPI increase likely means tomorrow’s CPI will also rise.
Thus, the market’s previous fantasy of rate cuts instantly started cooling down.
Many institutions had already started dreaming: at least two rate cuts in the second half, the Fed restarting liquidity, AI continuing to boost US stocks, Bitcoin hitting new highs.
Now, a single PPI report directly wakes up those dreams.
The most awkward is Powell.
Last year, he desperately raised interest rates, barely bringing inflation down from high levels. But now inflation suddenly rebounds, essentially telling the world: "Maybe it wasn’t fully beaten last time."
What does this mean?
It means interest rates may stay high longer.
And the phrase "Higher for Longer" is almost the most feared curse for risk assets.
Why do tech stocks tend to fall? Because high valuations fear high interest rates the most.
Why does the crypto market tend to fluctuate wildly? Because when global liquidity tightens, speculative funds immediately become cautious.
So you’ll find that the market is now in a state of daily "schizophrenia."
In the morning, celebrating the AI revolution; at night, panicking and jumping off the cliff due to a data point.
But the truly interesting part is—more and more funds are starting to doubt the dollar system.
Because if the US can’t control inflation and dares not keep high interest rates, it will ultimately have to rely on printing money to solve problems.
So gold, Bitcoin, and other "hedge against currency devaluation" assets are gaining new stories.
So this round of PPI is not just a data fluctuation.
It’s more like a reminder:
The most dangerous thing in the global market may never be recession, but "out-of-control inflation expectations."