U.S. Eastern Time 8:30 this morning, which is 8:30 p.m. Beijing time, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9 and the U.S. monthly retail sales data will be announced.

These two sets of data directly influence gold prices and are key messages that must be closely monitored this week.

U.S. retail sales data is known as a "scary data" point, easily triggering sharp market volatility, and directly affecting gold prices in the short term mainly through two logical factors: the strength or weakness of the dollar and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations:

Data exceeding expectations (bearish for gold)

Strong consumption, sufficient economic resilience, and rising inflation pressures; the market will reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates and delay rate cuts, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index.
As gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, the holding cost increases, making the market prone to downward pressure.

Data below expectations (bullish for gold)

Weak consumption and risks of economic stagnation or recession; market expectations for rate cuts increase, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weaken.
Combined with rising risk aversion sentiment, these double positives support a short-term rally in gold.

Current market background

Currently, high oil prices combined with stubborn inflation have maximized gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes.
If this data significantly exceeds expectations, gold may be temporarily suppressed by rate hike expectations, but stagflation risks will give gold strong resilience against declines;
If the data is weaker than expected, the combined resonance of rate cut expectations and risk aversion is likely to trigger a new round of upward movement in gold. #Gate广场五月交易分享 #外汇黄金