5.14 Bull market sharp decline, what must come will come, how should we view tomorrow?

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First is the market overview**

The usual routine, first look at the morning market thoughts. The index exceeded expectations yesterday, originally needing a pullback, then during Huang Mao’s visit to China, the expectation was to maintain oscillation, which was quite good. But yesterday afternoon, a divergence in expectations occurred: first Huang Renxun said he wouldn’t come, then he said he was on a plane, which caused AI hardware to take off yesterday afternoon, pushing the index beyond expectations. If during the visit to China the acceleration continues, the divergence will be after Huang Mao leaves, likely very significant. But if the divergence happens early, the subsequent divergence might not be as big as imagined. Constantly reminding, yesterday’s big rise was only suitable for front-loading, not for chasing blindly later. So today’s Da Vinci, does it mean most who chased yesterday will get caught? Yesterday was quite funny: power sector morning risk hedging was fine, computing leasing exceeded expectations, but when AI hardware flowed back, computing leasing gave way. After playing tools for so long, Alibaba’s big rise at night, but computing leasing still can’t rise today. The sector is like that.
**Notably, when AI hardware flowed back yesterday, power didn’t get impacted. If power had surged in the afternoon, 大唐 could have taken the opportunity to switch hands, which would be good. So this morning, power could have diverged into consensus. But yesterday no divergence, and this morning power followed AI hardware into divergence, showing a risk-averse trait. US stocks last night were much calmer, not wanting to go all out like the big A, most tech stocks opened high and then oscillated lower.
**Therefore, the key is whether the talks have unexpected content. If the content is mediocre, the positive effects might be realized; only if the positive surprises far exceed expectations can the market continue to rally strongly.
Finally, a mention about AI hardware: it was supposed to diverge, but several times it was pulled up without much divergence, similar to previous aerospace stocks. Once real divergence occurs, a big move is likely. So I said, don’t chase highs every day; either do continuous板接力 or pick a trend and lie flat. Support is there, be patient. Otherwise, chasing the top every day and cutting losses the next is unsustainable.

Sentiment: 大唐 crossed yesterday without change, today’s seven-board is unchanged, plus no divergence in the sector yesterday, so a one-word positive expectation today. But comments say, one-word positive is for front-loading, not for late entries. Also, yesterday when AI hardware flowed back, Jin Tanglang and Hangdian both retreated. They could have ridden the wave of storage and optical fiber strengthening, but they didn’t.
So here, sentiment diverged before the index, and today’s divergence adjustment is within expectations.

Today’s涨停 for 大唐 didn’t trigger any abnormality. Morning divergence and poor板 can be understood because today’s涨停 leaves no room for tomorrow, but if the market falls, and it falls with it, that’s hard to understand. Previously,超预期硬, indicating the main control is at level three, and this kind of move is deliberately letting go. Mona Lisa’s bidding is interesting: it maintained a red板 all along, yesterday it pushed up at the end, today it weakens then turns strong—trustworthy. But as I said, if超预期, just do债, buy at bidding or at开盘, and take profits when it pulls back. Today this债 can at least earn five or six points.
Jiao Da Angliang is very extreme: yesterday weak turning strong, today opening with a跌停, then during risk hedging it rose red. Those holding positions inside, did they sell at the lowest point? That would be infuriating.

The batch of 三进四 (three into four): 利仁股份 continues to top with a one-word, but such topping probably won’t be taken. 华电辽能 sold off today; after 大唐 sealed the limit, it didn’t seal, leaving a伏笔, and only sold after breaking the分时均线. 黄河旋风 yesterday exceeded expectations: first, the龙虎榜砸盘王, opened lower than Mona Lisa, so no big砸, but today it’s definitely爆量. If it re-closed, it’s likely to be a pullback to see抛压; tomorrow, weak turning strong is possible.

二进三 (two into three): 福达 broke its limit; 可川继续顶一字, midday couldn’t resist the market pressure and炸了. Both线上线下, today’s走势很强, able to push high and oscillate, still超预期. 花王股份 continues to top, with obvious产业链痕迹.
韶能 and 汉缆, both opened with a砸. 合肥城建, based on成交 and换手, might be trying to follow 大唐’s old path. 快克智能, with存储芯片, was hit with a摸板杀 at开盘. Overall, 福达’s断板节点 doesn’t seem to have good options, as it’s basically工具人. Someone will ask, why isn’t 万控 right? It nearly涨停 at bidding, but opened with a砸. Clearly, this is 福达’s节点, its属性贴合福达, so when 福达跌停, can it still be considered okay?

一进二 (one into two): 大唐 crossing节点, today’s晋级率低, the reason is simple: 大唐不够强. I’ve said before, each节点 has its significance. 断板节点 is based on the补涨高度, and穿越节点 requires stocks with enough强度 to穿越, with cooperation, similar to去年合富中国 and 摩恩.
Today’s一进二: 威龙’s large单 is a one-word, no need to say more, and it’s shrinking seriously. Later, it might just be a破高度工具人. For stocks at the same level, this强度 should logically be unbreakable, only used for换手乌龟演戏套利.
金房能源 and 京能电力 have actions脱离大唐. 昂利康 and 浙江药 are supporting 浙江主升. 华升股份, I don’t know why its强度 is so high; during算力租赁分歧, it continued to top一字, this stock has also shown a trend, but watch out for断板 later.

Finally, look at today’s思路: 大唐涨停没有异动, so today’s晋级难度 isn’t high; the sector has supported this level. But the problem is tomorrow’s空间 won’t be much. Divergence is normal; the expectation is that if the分歧 in the烂板 continues and breaks the早盘的低点, then the承接 is problematic. For stocks at level three, if承接有问题, it means the三故意想砸死.
Yesterday afternoon, 华电辽能, 华电能源 these arbitrage stocks were quite坚挺, somewhat透支 today’s预期. Actually, yesterday’s AI hardware flow back, with some volume, makes today’s AI hardware divergence logical for flow back.
Today, 大唐发电’s封单 still small; although it opened with a good一字, the expectation was for大单一字, combined with AI divergence, but today it only had four亿, what’s the difference from before? Mona Lisa’s芯片最高板 hints that if弱转强,债 can be arbitraged. Brothers, don’t miss this.
One into two: because of 威龙, look more carefully; after all, the largest单, to do乌龟, must show strength. So today’s一进二 suggests there’s still opportunity later. Of course, if 威龙 can’t be卡掉, it will爆, so trust early.

Next, extract bidding info: 威龙’s largest单, so one into two needs to look for opportunities. 恒宇信通’s second largest单 is still somewhat超预期, guiding Beijing. Today, although it炸, it re-closed decisively. Unexpectedly, it acquired卫星通信公司, with this guidance, today’s航天 divergence remains large.
韶能股份’s third largest单, Guangdong, involves电协同, but later撤单, meaning it was supposed to show强度, backing 大唐. 利仁科技’s fourth largest单, Beijing, also unclear why it keeps顶, especially since 大唐 already炸了.
中利集团, Jiangsu, involving光纤,电力, and配合共进, suggests AI hardware and电力 are linked. This understanding makes sense of power following divergence.
花王继续顶, “花”=woman, Mona Lisa is the king? 大唐’s bidding is only about三亿多封单, later added some, overall strength isn’t high, and no big单 at开盘. 万控智造 small封单, yesterday Zhejiang guidance was high, so that’s definitely wrong.
群兴玩具, Alibaba算力,推润健, later撤单, sorry for Alibaba’s big涨 last night. 群兴 also from Guangdong.
At 919, many撤单 started; yesterday’s market was like that, playing撤单 feels insincere. 大唐 then added nearly五亿.
中利’s封单 reached second place.

920, 中利估计要加单, but suddenly added to 1.1B, so 中利’s江苏,光纤,电缆 need guidance. Mona Lisa here feels no buy point; if bidding keeps压跌停 and then拉红 at bidding, then超预期的弱转强, but if it stays red, it’s a阳谋.
共进提示: is it hinting that科技 and电力 are together?
交大昂立 then directly pressed跌停, sector chain becoming extreme.
For补涨, a bunch of一字, meaning one字 with硬度, so for电力类, doing换手 doesn’t make much sense.

After开盘, power stocks like韶能, 汉缆 all砸下来; 交大昂立 instead pulled from跌停 to红, showing risk hedging.
But power is also risk hedging, and if medicine gets认可, it shows电力 here is considered电协同. Yesterday’s硬, so today’s协同.
Divergence was already indicated at开盘, and the重点 is on二板布局. Currently, 大唐 divergence, 福达跌停, so the above节点 might be false, only威龙乌龟 remains visible.

Finally, summarize today’s overall market: Last night, US stocks weren’t excited, probably because the会谈预期 isn’t strong or because the talks are seen as positive only if the预期 is fulfilled. After all, AI hardware has been rising before, not only after the meeting. After开盘, AI hardware started diverging, and because many暗示电协同 yesterday, power sector also diverged. During divergence, some stocks like医药 and化工 also rose, all true risk hedges. The market tried many times to护盘 during trading, but only those not related to AI hardware were supported; stocks like金融 were even more砸.
This market pattern is driven by AI hardware, and the index rally from AI hardware can only be resolved by AI hardware itself. Other sectors are seen as cover for dumping, so they get hammered more.
Early morning, after封单 of 60w at 华电辽能, it still didn’t rise; later, it fell back first. So 华电’s position remains important, the leading power stock.
During AI hardware divergence, stocks that can抗跌 should be watched, like yesterday’s兄弟问中天, which performed well today. Yesterday,弱的萝卜 also opened higher than top.
绿生态 also hit new highs.
Overall, divergence exists but leaves room for activity, indicating funds still want to play. But I’m not in a hurry to bottom fish because the previous超预期 didn’t adjust, and this correction might also be超预期. Clear止跌 signals and support levels are my bottom-fishing strategy, not subjective guesses that the bottom is in.

In the afternoon, the会谈 ended. The market’s rise in猪肉 and白酒 is for tonight’s消费? No new themes appeared; after a round, funds returned to AI hardware. First, it pulled 汇绿, then 盛视科技涨停, and 华盛昌 also hovered for a long time before hitting涨停. This flow was mentioned at midday; it’s not good. If today’s divergence continues into tomorrow morning, it would be a good调整状态. But just now, divergence appeared, and this afternoon it rose again, forcing a strong转强 tomorrow morning. But the Fed’s decision is due tomorrow night, and after Huang Mao returns, the weekend might stir things up again, so I personally don’t think this rhythm is good. The index is doing a抱摔动作, with two possibilities: one, the调整空间 isn’t big, just a back-and-forth to change space; two, early修复 in the afternoon to offset tomorrow’s预期. It depends on how US stocks perform tonight. Of course, subjectively, if tomorrow’s bidding panic occurs, it’s probably quant funds picking bloodied chips. The afternoon’s下杀 was based on预期会谈有好消息 that turned out nothing, so they砸盘. But overall, the logic remains unchanged.**

Summary of the连板行情:

一、五板：金螳螂断板节点
Mona Lisa, Guangdong, advanced ceramics layout, smart home, small-cap, weak转强, just do债

二、四板：福达合金穿越节点
利仁股份，北京，小家电，净水，露营经济，北京推北京，遗憾大唐硬砸

三、三板：福达断板节点
1.可川科技，江苏，消费电子，CPO芯片，锂电池，散户举牌
2.花王股份，江苏，储能，汽车芯片，机器人，拟更名“顺景科技”，股本稀碎，产业链痕迹
3.合肥城建，安徽，间接持有科技，房地产，竞价弱转强，下午挺硬

四、二板：大唐发电穿越节点
1.贵州燃气，贵州，天然气，地下管网，股本不错，午后避险拉升
2.威龙股份，山东，淄博国资入主，白酒，竞价最大单，指引山东，重组
3.华升股份，湖南，液冷服务器，算力租赁，竞价一字，但算力租赁没发酵
4.金房能源，北京，液冷服务器，储能，股本稀碎，北京想做补涨
5.京能电力，北京，绿电，风电，氢能源，股本优秀，想做大唐补涨
6.昂利康，浙江，创新药，浙江药推浙江主升，交大昂立不做，做这个
7.可立克，广东，机器人，储能，消费电子，股本不错，股价略高
8.南华期货，浙江，多元金融，算力租赁，算力期货，股本不错
9.欧克科技，江西，PI膜，锂电隔膜设备，机器人，高股价，股本一般
10.宁波中百，浙江，零售，黄金，下午白酒异动，做的消费悟道板
11.中船特气，河北，浙江大股东，六氟化钨，存储上游，电子特气，股本稀碎

五、首板：大唐断板节点
1.共进股份，广东，机器人，CPO芯片，股本一般，暗示科技和电力同进共退
2.金富科技，广东，包装，液冷并购，竞价抢一字
3.中利集团，江苏，厦门国资，光纤，电缆，竞价加单
4.泰和新材，山东，光纤，芳纶，风电，机器人，高铁，股本一般
5.协鑫集成，上海，光伏，绿电，储能，电力老辨识度轮番表现
6.和远气体，湖北，电子特气，国产替代，推宝光
7.永和股份，浙江，氟化工，环氧丙烷，液冷服务器，股本一般
8.天富能源，新疆，电力，算电协同，兵团国资，股本一般
9.双良节能，江苏，太空光伏，液冷服务器，spacex订单，博弈消息
10.瑞玛精密，江苏，无人驾驶，锂电池，华盛昌以后最后一个涨停
11.红宝丽，江苏，环氧丙烷，水泥，避险拉化工老龙抱团
12.晨光新材，江西，功能性硅烷，气凝胶，股本不错
13.宁夏建材，宁夏，数据中心，水泥，股本还行
14.天域生物，重庆，猪肉，锂电池，绿电，猪肉避险
15.天邦食品，浙江，猪肉，绿电，机器人，股本稀碎
16.侨银股份，广东，人形机器人，固废处理，绿电，股本一般
17.恒星科技，河南，有机硅，机器人，黄金，股本稀碎
18.北自科技，北京，人形机器人，军工，股本稀碎，午后第一板
19.旗盛科技，浙江，脑机，养老，三胎，不知道是不是旗开得胜的意思
20.汇绿生态，湖北，光模块，硅光芯片，下午AI硬件回流先锋
21.盛视科技，广东，算力采购，人形机器人，存储芯片，不知道大唐没了为何拉盛世
22.星德胜，江苏，机器人，锂电池，下午涨停，昂利康炸板，“新的胜”
23.华盛昌，广东，电网设备，光通信，光通信回流刺激

重点个股点评

趋势股

588990，趋势没坏，继续保持观察。

罗博特科，早上高开过顶，对子顶可以降低关注度，其余前高防守就行。

有色金属ETF，看好后面抗通胀逻辑，保持关注。

连板股

大唐发电，一字开没啥问题，后面回封也没啥问题，主要是主控故意砸，后面跌破分时均线可以降低关注，跌破早上低点可以取关。

华电辽能，抱团股，拉起来又跌破分时均线，同时大唐炸板，可以取关。

宝光股份，电子特气异动，它是二波图形，垫单子排撤，估计都被一笔大单砸进去。

蒙娜转债，开盘正股直接拉，半路债，吃一口拐头就可以走。以前就教过的玩法。

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再次感谢昨天加油的各位兄弟@别扶我@建设中路营业部@狼王行千里@dandy3574@奶酪猪猫@smile张@whaisheng@不做韭菜的阿喵
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感谢榜一大哥@回本就行呜呜呜 榜二大哥@不做韭菜的阿喵 榜三大哥@奶酪猪猫**
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再次感谢打赏金粉支持@洪六公@请不要站在窗下@情小怀@唯梦倾城@lyh98888@骏豪大拿@白给王中王@小天一@差不多先生来了@Elite@向牛而升@奥莉奥斯缘@天才小火龙L@猫猫发财猫@Lee1987@shaks@Matt哥@zqzq1996@花信有时@好运哈哈哈@嘻嘻哈哈的知行合一@小度小度96@一一牛@狼王行千里@未记代价卖牡丹@知行合一168067@勇敢的猪猪@人简单一笔够写完一生@道乾坤1@发发发财发发@边涯@专注超短龙头@魉呼@百城兄弟@回本就行呜呜呜@骑驴看唱本寻马@sdffghhjkkk@自动敲木鱼@小小华哥哥@张世勋@不颜不雨@程888@大毛不做杂毛@拿小先生@紫金花@张优金@一口破钟@南京伊布@接盘的小韭菜@王德法@若水紫嫣@韭黄阿盼@dandy3574@AAAAKang@不动m@佑手旧零@蝉蛹好吃@不做韭菜好多年@初学炒股99@ZGX呆呆@楷森@江西小@左手化羽@在下A股鬼见愁@浙江余姚人@蟑螂恶霸111@一亿路红@您的好邻居王哥@水阳江畔@Are21@西夕夕夕@燃烧的红河日股夜钓@吃mian达人@泡沫冬冬@guyd@红桃K的世界@半罐水888@magickang@张只有十七万@agag777@舵飞轮@Freedom航天@古秦洋@头晕时间@smile张@汤加三勺 你们是默默打赏付出最初支持我的好兄弟，祝兄弟们天天发财！**
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油票不用多，七张就足够，谢谢各位给帖子精华，将是我持续更新的动力**