#Gate广场五月交易分享

My Bitcoin Intraday Long Plan

1. Market Review

Current BTC price is $79,807, down about 1.35% over 24 hours, with a clear pullback. The 24-hour high touched $81,314, and the low dropped to $78,758, with an intraday range of about $2,556. Volatility is moderate to high, providing room for intraday long operations.

Looking at the last 7 daily candles, BTC experienced a rise followed by a fall: starting from $80,196 on May 9, breaking through to $82,204 on May 10 (intraday high $82,474), continuing higher to $81,740 on May 11 (high $82,369), then on May 12 falling from $81,740 to $80,502 (high $81,783, low $79,848), and further dropping to $79,313 on May 13 (high $81,314, low $78,758), closing lower for two consecutive days with increasing downward momentum. Early this morning, the price continued to decline, with the 4-hour K-line showing a drop from $79,640 to $79,044, with a low of $78,921, currently hovering around $79,800.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

Technical signals show a short-term bearish bias but still hold some medium-term bullish hope.

15-minute level: ADX at 25.36, trend momentum moderate; CCI at 96.51, approaching overbought but not overheated; WR at -16.93, in overbought territory; moving averages are bullish, indicating a short-term rebound; SAR at $79,375, serving as a stop-loss for longs, with price above SAR points, indicating an active bullish trend.

1-hour level: ADX at 33.60, trend momentum strong; CCI at 64.84, neutral to bullish; WR at -16.93, in overbought territory; however, moving averages are bearish, indicating a short-term downtrend; SAR at $78,977, acting as a stop-loss for longs, with current price about $830 above this level, limiting bullish space.

4-hour level: CCI at -169.39, severely oversold, suggesting a higher probability of a short-term rebound; WR at -91.40, also in extreme oversold territory; ADX at 24.91, trend momentum weak; SAR at $81,068, far above current price, with a bearish stop-loss above, indicating a dominant short-term downtrend on the 4-hour.

Overall daily signals are bullish, meaning that despite the short-term correction, the larger trend on the daily chart remains bullish. The bullish arrangement and oversold signals on the 15-minute chart also support a short-term rebound view.

In summary, BTC is currently in a "daily bullish + 1-hour bearish + 4-hour oversold" pattern. The severe oversold condition on the 4-hour CCI (-169.39) is a key rebound signal; historically, when CCI drops below -150, a technical rebound often occurs. This suggests good long opportunities today, but entries should be made at appropriate support levels.

3. Key Levels

Key Support Levels: $78,977 (1-hour SAR bullish stop-loss), $78,758 (24-hour low), $78,500 (oversold rebound failure threshold), $78,000 (trend turning bearish threshold).

Key Resistance Levels: $79,375 (15-minute SAR stop-loss, bullish if held), $80,500 (yesterday’s close, first rebound target), $81,000 - $81,300 (resistance zone from previous highs), $81,314 (24-hour high).

4. Trading Strategy

Core principle: Wait for oversold rebound, buy on pullback, never chase or sell in panic.

The severe oversold condition on the 4-hour CCI is the main basis for today’s long setup. Historically, when CCI drops below -150, prices tend to experience a technical rebound within a short period, usually 1%-3%. Currently, CCI at -169.39 meets the oversold rebound condition.

Today’s long zones are divided into three layers:

Primary Long Zone: $78,700 - $79,000 — the core support area over the past two days. $78,758 is the 24-hour low, $78,921 is the latest 4-hour low, and $78,977 is the 1-hour SAR bullish stop-loss. These converge tightly, making support very strong. If price stabilizes here, the probability of a long entry is highest.

Secondary Long Zone: $79,200 - $79,500 — if price does not further decline and stabilizes here, a long position can be taken directly. $79,375 is the 15-minute SAR stop-loss; if price holds above this level, the short-term 15-minute bullish trend remains, allowing direct entry.

Chase Entry Zone: $80,500 - $81,000 — only if price breaks through $80,500 with volume, can a small long position be added. $80,500 is near yesterday’s close resistance zone, with a target of $81,000. In this zone, reduce position size, quick in and out.

5. Specific Trading Plan

First Entry: When price pulls back to around $78,800 - $79,000 and shows stabilization signals (e.g., two consecutive 15-minute candles closing bullish, volume picking up), enter long with 40% of total capital, target $80,500, stop-loss at $78,500. Expected profit about $1,700, risk-reward ratio approximately 5.7:1.

Second Entry: If price stabilizes and rebounds in the $79,300 - $79,500 zone (without reaching the primary long zone), enter long with 35% of total capital, target $80,800, stop-loss at $79,000. Expected profit about $1,500, risk-reward ratio about 3:1.

Third Entry: If rebound confirms and price breaks $80,500, add a small long with 15% of total capital, target $81,300, stop-loss at $80,000. Expected profit about $800, risk-reward ratio about 1.6:1.

If the oversold rebound plan succeeds, daily profit could be about $1,700 for the first trade, $3,200 if the second adds, and up to $4,000 if all three succeed. The key is to wait for stabilization signals after CCI becomes oversold, avoiding early entries during declines.

6. Risk Control and Capital Management

Position management: maximum single position no more than 40% of total capital (can be slightly increased for clear directions), and no more than 2 long positions at once (batching entries). Daily maximum drawdown limited to 5% of total capital; consider reducing or stopping trading once daily profit reaches 2%.

Strictly enforce stop-loss rules:

Rule 1: Technical stop-loss — close all if price drops below $78,500, confirming oversold rebound failure; if below $78,000, trend has turned bearish, abandon longs. If 1-hour SAR at $78,977 is broken, reduce position and observe.

Rule 2: Time stop-loss — if position remains over 6 hours without reaching the first target at $80,500, reassess rebound momentum; if weakening, reduce to half.

Rule 3: Capital stop-loss — if loss reaches 3% of principal on a single trade, exit unconditionally; do not hold through. With high volatility, a 3% stop-loss around $79,800 is about $2,394, roughly at $77,400, well below key supports, so technical stops are primary.

Rule 4: Trailing stop — after 1% profit (~$800), move stop-loss to breakeven (cost basis); after 2% profit (~$1,600), move stop-loss to $80,600, locking in profits.

Currently, watch for risk signals: two consecutive daily closes lower, increasing downward momentum; 1-hour moving averages bearish; 4-hour SAR at $81,068 well above current price, indicating a dominant downtrend; volume increasing during declines, showing strong selling pressure. Despite oversold CCI suggesting rebound potential, the strength and duration are uncertain, so prepare for stop-loss.