#Gate广场五月交易分享

Will the 《CLARITY Act》 vote pass tonight? Where will the market go? Let’s take an in-depth look

Less than 8 hours left! The result of the 《CLARITY Act》 vote in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee—which will determine the fate of the big BTC move in the short term—is about to be announced. The entire market is waiting to see what this single piece of legislation will deliver. In the critical period when Bitcoin failed to break through 82,000 and pulled back to 79,000 USD, whether the bill can pass will not only decide whether Bitcoin can rebound, but also affect whether the “bull run” judgment can prove correct.

Core highlights of the latest bill:

1. Clearly define the classification of crypto tokens (such as securities, commodities, or others), and clarify the SEC and CFTC regulatory jurisdictions.

2. For the stablecoin yield issue, reach a compromise: prohibit paying interest rewards for “idle stablecoin holdings” similar to interest on bank deposits, but allow rewards linked to actual transaction activities such as payments and transfers (e.g., cashback or fee subsidies).

3. Other provisions relate to anti-money-laundering rules and preventing political officials from profiting from cryptocurrencies.

Probability assessment‌

‌Higher likelihood during the committee review stage (about 70%)‌:

The compromise has eased the core controversy: the deadlock between the banking industry and the crypto industry mainly centers on stablecoin yields. The latest compromise (banning rewards on idle holdings but allowing activity-based rewards) has gained support from some lawmakers across party lines (such as the negotiation efforts involving Republican Senator Tom Tillis and Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks), reducing the risk of an immediate rejection.

Strong political momentum: polls show broad voter support for the bill (52% approval, only 11% against). The lawmakers supporting the bill may gain an advantage of about 20 percentage points in elections. This increases pressure to pass the bill in the committee, especially because the Republican majority is favorable for moving it forward.

Tight time window: the White House has set July 4 as the target date for the president to sign it. If the window before the May 21 Memorial Day recess is missed, the bill may be sidelined by the November midterm elections. Committee members (such as Senator Cynthia Lummis) have emphasized that “action must be taken as soon as possible.”

‌Potential risk points‌:

Lobbying resistance from the banking industry remains: groups such as the American Bankers Association oppose the stablecoin provisions. They worry that deposit outflows could threaten financial stability, which may affect some Republican lawmakers.

Insufficient Democratic support: the bill needs support from at least 7 Democratic lawmakers across party lines. But many Democrats criticize the anti-money-laundering provisions as weak, which could weigh down the vote count.

If the committee does not pass it, the bill will stall; however, based on the current compromise text and industry lobbying (such as Cbase’s push), the probability of passage is still favorable.

Market direction forecast

Optimistic scenario (bill passes committee review)‌:

Overall market up‌: improved regulatory clarity will reduce uncertainty and attract inflows of institutional capital. Bitcoin (BTC) could break above the key resistance level of 80,000 USD and test the 82,000–85,000 USD range. Stablecoin issuers (such as Circle, USDC) and exchanges (such as Coinbase) will directly benefit; stock prices and token prices may continue their upward trend.

‌Major coins: support and resistance levels‌:

‌Bitcoin (BTC)‌: Support at 78,000 USD (recent low and psychological level), resistance at 80,000 USD (historical resistance). After a breakout, it could target 82,000 USD.

‌Ethereum (ETH)‌: Support at 2230 USD (technical moving-average support), resistance at 2300–2400 USD (key whole-number levels).

‌Market sentiment‌: If the review result is optimistic, the market may replicate the move seen after the release of the compromise in early May (Bitcoin broke above 80,000 USD, and Circle’s stock rose nearly 20% in a single day).

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Negative scenario (bill fails or is delayed)‌:

Short-term pullback risk‌: regulatory uncertainty resurfaces, or it could trigger profit-taking. Bitcoin may test the 75,000–78,000 USD support zone, and Ethereum could fall to 2150 USD. The downside for stablecoins and exchange tokens (such as Cbase’s COIN) could be even larger.

‌Key risk event‌: If opposition from the banking industry dominates the review, it could reinforce concerns about “capital outflows,” weighing on market confidence.

Trading recommendations

‌Short-term trading‌: Watch the committee vote result (to be announced today). If it passes, you can consider adding to positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and compliant stablecoins; if it does not pass, reduce exposure and wait-and-see.

‌Key things to watch‌: the final definition of the stablecoin yield provisions, changes in Democratic votes, and whether Bitcoin can hold above 80,000 USD.

‌Risk warning‌: The bill is the subject of intense political maneuvering. Unexpected delays or adjustments to amendments could trigger sharp volatility. It’s not recommended to gamble on the headlines; it’s better to wait until the information is confirmed, then combine technical indicators to guide your trading decisions.