Intraday and Mid-term Market Analysis (2026.5.14)

1. The long-term cycle remains in a high-level oscillation, and $80,000 is the current core dividing line between bulls and bears. For intraday trading, focus on shorting at high points, and when the price approaches around $80,000, consider entering short positions in batches.

2. Downward direction: If the price effectively breaks below $80,000, a mid-term downtrend will be confirmed, likely initiating a roughly 4-week oscillating downward bottoming process. The decline will mainly be characterized by bearish drops and oscillations, with a very low probability of an extreme one-sided waterfall.

3. Upward risk: If the price quickly recovers above $80,000, caution is needed for a short-term bullish rebound, targeting a secondary peak around $81,500; once the price stabilizes above $81,500, all short positions will be stopped out, and the current bearish setup will be closed. This scenario has a very low probability but requires strict risk control.