What is the likelihood of the U.S. Senate passing the CLARITY regulatory bill?

Tonight's committee approval probability: 75%

Final signing into law probability (within 2026): 60%-65%

Based on a triple analysis of political bargaining, funding bets, and market pricing. The logical breakdown is as follows:

1. Political vote calculation: Republicans have "locked in" the votes

- Committee structure: The Senate Banking Committee has 24 seats (13 Republicans vs 11 Democrats).
- Key figures: Swing voter Kennedy (Republican) has reached an agreement with Chair Scott, promising to vote in favor. This means all 13 Republican votes are secured.
- Logical deduction: Even if all 11 Democratic members oppose, a 13:11 vote is enough to push the bill out of the committee. This is tonight’s most certain positive signal.

2. Market pricing: Real money on the line

- Prediction market: The contract price on Polymarket for “CLARITY becoming law in 2026” remains steady at 0.73 (73% probability). This reflects the expectations of global traders, more honest than any analyst.
- Market language: ETH, amid macroeconomic bearishness from CPI data, has not fallen below 2200, indicating funds are betting or hedging on tonight’s regulatory positive. The market is pricing in the “pass” likelihood.

3. Resistance and uncertainties (that 25% uncertainty)

Although the committee approval probability is high, there are two hurdles before the bill is truly signed into law, which explains why the final probability is only 60%:

1. Democratic amendments: Warren and others have submitted over 100 amendments (such as restricting stablecoin yields), attempting to “muddy the waters” in the terms. Tonight’s focus is not just “pass or not,” but how “clean” the passing version is.
2. Union opposition: AFL-CIO and five major unions have issued strong opposition letters, which could influence some Democratic lawmakers’ stance and increase uncertainty in subsequent full-house votes.

- Tonight (14th): Committee approval is highly likely (75%). If passed, ETH may see a wave of “sell the rumor” rebound, but overhead resistance is heavy. The daily session first looks at whether it can hold above 2250, with 2280 as intra-day resistance.