Trump praises "the best China-U.S. relations in history," Xi Jinping responds: The two powers must avoid the Thucydides Trap

Trump and Xi Jinping held the “Trump-Xi Meeting” at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the morning of the 14th. The scene featured 21 salutes, performances of both national anthems, and the two shaking hands for over 10 seconds before walking the red carpet together. The spectacle was described by foreign media as a grand ceremony carefully orchestrated by Xi Jinping for this former reality TV star; during his speech, Xi directly mentioned the “Thucydides Trap,” while Trump claimed that China-U.S. relations are “the best ever.”
(Background summary: The Trump-Xi meeting took place today: Xi Jinping reached out first, Trump showed dominance with a 14-second “pat and shake” handshake, and three issues on Taiwan arms sales, Iran tariffs, and trade were on the table.)
(Additional background: Trump requested to delay the meeting by a month; the Iran conflict disrupted the situation, causing Polymarket’s probability of a 75% crash to 5%.)

Table of Contents

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• U.S.-China lineup: diplomacy, trade, and defense all covered
• Trump opens mic: “U.S.-China relations will be the best ever”
• Xi Jinping responds: can the two powers avoid the Thucydides Trap?
• Next steps: closed-door talks, the Temple of Heaven, state banquet

The 21-gun salute rang out outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. After Trump arrived in a presidential convoy, Xi Jinping personally greeted him. The two exchanged greetings for over 10 seconds and walked side by side along the red carpet. Children waved flags of both China and the U.S., while bands played the national anthems of both countries in sequence. Foreign media analyzed that this grand arrangement was a tailored high-level reception designed to cater to Xi Jinping’s preference for ceremony, especially considering Trump’s background as a former reality TV star, setting the tone for today’s talks.

It has been nine years since Trump last set foot on Chinese soil—his second visit during his current presidential term.

U.S.-China lineup: diplomacy, trade, and defense all covered

Both delegations include core representatives from diplomacy, trade, and defense, reflecting the depth of the agenda.

• Chinese side: State-level leaders Cai Qi, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Vice Premier He Lifeng, Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe, and NDRC Director Zheng Zhenzheng
• U.S. side: Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Trade Representative Katherine Tai, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

Trump opens mic: “U.S.-China relations will be the best ever”

Trump’s speech carried his usual personal show style. He first recalled the welcoming scene with Chinese children jumping to greet him, saying these children “are more impressive than military performances.”

Then he shifted focus back to the relationship between the two leaders, emphasizing the personal rapport with Xi Jinping—when encountering difficulties, they would contact each other directly by phone and handle issues swiftly. “Even when facing challenges, we can work together to resolve them,” Trump said. He also once again called Xi Jinping a “great leader” on camera, adding a semi-self-deprecating remark: “Sometimes people don’t like me saying this, but I have to say it because it’s the truth.”

Regarding the accompanying delegation, Trump highlighted that he brought “the top 30 business elites in the world,” all of whom are “first-in-command”—“I don’t want second-in-command or third-in-command of these companies,” he directly pointed out the high caliber of the lineup. Xi Jinping nodded and smiled upon hearing this.

At the end of his speech, Trump concluded with an emotional note: “It’s an honor to be your friend. U.S.-China relations will be the best ever.”

Xi Jinping responds: Can the two powers avoid the Thucydides Trap?

Compared to Trump’s colloquial style, Xi Jinping’s speech leaned more towards academic discourse. He opened by directly mentioning a well-known concept in international relations—the “Thucydides Trap,” which refers to the historical tendency of rising powers and established powers to clash.

Xi Jinping posed three questions: can the two countries cross this trap, can they create new norms in great power relations, and can they work together to inject more stability into the world? He described these as “questions of history, questions of the world, questions of the people.”

He then discussed the logic of cooperation, believing that the success of China and the U.S. is an opportunity for each other, and that stable relations are beneficial for the world. He summarized with a concise couplet: “When united, both benefit; when fighting, both suffer; we should be partners, not rivals.”

Xi Jinping finally set a clear timeline: he hopes 2026 will become a historic and landmark year for China-U.S. relations, “building on the past and opening a new chapter.”

Next steps: closed-door talks, the Temple of Heaven, state banquet

After the morning public speech, both sides entered closed-door negotiations. Trump’s afternoon schedule included a visit to the Temple of Heaven in Beijing, and in the evening, he attended a state banquet hosted by Xi Jinping.

Three major issues are known to be on the agenda: arms sales to Taiwan (which Trump proactively mentioned before the meeting), Iran issues, and trade tariffs. Whether specific concessions or joint statements will be issued remains to be seen.