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Just came across this fascinating historical chart from Samuel Benner back in 1875 where he was mapping out economic cycles. The guy was basically trying to decode periods when to make money by identifying repeating patterns of booms, recessions, and panics.
So here's the breakdown he proposed. First, there are these panic years that hit roughly every 18 to 20 years – think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and it projects to 2035, 2053. During these periods, markets tend to collapse and things get messy. The advice is pretty straightforward: don't panic sell. Just hold and wait it out.
Then you've got the boom years where everything's recovering and prices are surging. These are your actual periods when to make money by selling – years like 1928, 1943, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and coming up 2026, 2034, 2043, 2054. When these boom cycles hit, that's when you should be taking profits and moving out of positions.
The third category is the hard times or recession years – 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032, 2040, 2050, 2059. Prices are depressed, economy's struggling, and honestly this is when smart money usually enters. You buy assets cheap, accumulate, then hold until the next boom cycle arrives.
The whole framework basically says: accumulate during recessions when everything's on sale, then distribute during boom periods when valuations are high. Skip the panic years – just survive them.
Now here's the thing – Benner's cycle is based on historical patterns and long-term market rhythms, not some magic formula. Real markets get hit by wars, politics, tech disruptions, and a thousand other variables. But it does give you a useful lens for thinking about periods when to make money and when to stay defensive. Whether you follow it religiously or just use it as a reference point, the core wisdom still holds: buy low, sell high, and don't get wrecked during panic periods.