I saw an interesting report on Bitcoin's on-chain indicators. The MVRV Z-Score is currently at -2.28, which is quite extreme — lower than the lows of 2018 and 2022. Basically, it means the price is well below what would be considered the 'fair value' if we consider the on-chain cost basis.

Analyst Axel comments that this extreme reading of the MVRV Z-Score is because now we have much more institutional capital entering (due to ETFs), so the cost basis has become much higher. This makes the indicator more sensitive to any price drops. To confirm an exit from this pressure zone, we would need to see the MVRV Z-Score rise above -1.5 with BTC maintaining above $65,000.

Now, the interesting side is that the NUPL, which measures overall market sentiment, is at 0.197. This is in the 'hope' zone, far from true panic. In actual historical lows (like December 2018, March 2020, and November 2022), the NUPL dropped into negative territory, indicating that most were at a loss. We haven't reached that point yet here. Most holders still have paper profits, even with confidence shaken.

So, in summary: the MVRV Z-Score shows extreme price pressure, but sentiment is not yet capitulation. We are at an intermediate point, not at the actual bottom.