Today’s Bitcoin Outlook (5.14)

Core conclusion: The daily technicals are bearish, Trump’s visit to China creates a short-term sentiment window; today’s trading range is likely between 79,000 and 80,500, mainly trading high and buying low, with key levels at 79,500 and 80,000 as the dividing lines.

📉 Daily technicals (bearish)

• Moving averages: Short-term moving averages (5/10/20 days) continue to weaken, about to form a death cross, mid-term upward momentum slowing down.

• MACD: Daily MACD has already crossed downward, with expanding green bars, indicating bearish momentum dominates.

• Key resistance: 80,000–80,500 (round number + short-term trading congestion zone, strong resistance).

• Core support: 79,000–79,500 (support zone mentioned yesterday, bulls’ defense line); strong support at 77,500–78,000.

🌍 Impact of Trump’s visit to China (5.13–5.15)

• The event is a macro risk appetite catalyst, likely to trigger short-term market volatility and a shift to risk aversion/speculation.

• Slightly positive expectation: If the meeting signals easing, risk assets (including BTC) may see a short-term rebound, but the daily technical structure remains unchanged.

• Today’s focus: Whether the market can hold above 80,000 after a sentiment correction; if volume breaks through 80,500, the rebound space opens up to around 81,500.

🎯 Today’s trading strategy (buy low and sell high)

1. Long positions (lightly after stabilization)

• Retrace to 79,000–79,500 zone, stabilize without breaking below (1-hour close above), try a small long position.

• Stop loss: below 78,800; target: 80,000 → 80,500, take profits in stages.

2. Short positions (trend following after breakdown)

• Effectively break below 79,000 (1-hour close below), follow the trend with a small short.

• Stop loss: above 79,500; target: 78,000 → 77,500.
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