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No wonder Trump is eager to visit China; only China can help with this crisis.
Wall Street veterans have long been uneasy, with a set of data pointing directly to hidden risks in the U.S. market: Nvidia's market value has surpassed $4 trillion, the Nasdaq's price-to-earnings ratio has soared to 42, and the top seven tech giants account for 43% of the entire market share.
These scenes are very much like the night before the burst of the internet bubble in 2000.
Traders who experienced that catastrophe know all too well that history doesn't simply repeat itself, but similar crisis rhythms always emerge.
Today, U.S. tech giants seem to hold hundreds of billions in cash, vastly different from the shell companies burning money back then, but enormous risks are hidden beneath this appearance of wealth.
According to estimates by U.S. banks, by 2030, capital expenditures alone for U.S. tech giants will reach $1.2 trillion.
Under the demand for huge capital, methods such as internal circulation, leverage nesting, and off-balance-sheet financing are emerging one after another, with risk strategies more aggressive than those before the 2008 financial crisis.
Even more deadly is that, after two years of hype around AI concepts, very few applications have achieved real profitability or commercial models, with most investments still stuck in the "pie-in-the-sky storytelling" stage.
The Federal Reserve's rate cuts seem to be prolonging the market's life, but inflation risks have never been eliminated.
If inflation rebounds and rate hikes are forced to restart, high-valued tech stocks will be the first to be sold off, becoming the primary victims of the crisis.
Seeing all this, it’s clear why Trump is so eager to visit China!
This is not just about trade deficits; the U.S. tech industry has fallen into a predicament it cannot escape.
AI development continues to burn cash, but the largest landing markets, the most complete industrial chains, and the biggest application scenarios supporting its growth are all in China.
The U.S. has been pushing for chip legislation for years, but the backlash has already become apparent.
Tech giants like Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Apple cannot truly survive without the Chinese market.
Without China absorbing their technological achievements, digesting their product capacities, and supporting their industry expansion, the current AI bubble in the U.S. cannot even be inflated properly.
This crucial effort to save the U.S. tech industry from collapse is beyond Europe's capacity to handle, and Japan and South Korea lack the complete industrial chains needed.
Looking globally, only China has the matching strength, complete industrial chains, and enormous consumer market to support the fragile U.S. tech industry.
Trump’s visit is essentially about seeking a way out for the U.S. tech industry caught in a bubble crisis.
From the very beginning, this trip to China has been filled with a tone of urgent appeal.
#TrumpVisitsChina