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Bitcoin rebound faces resistance at the 200-day moving average—can this hurdle be overcome?

Recently, Bitcoin's rebound was halted and pulled back at a key technical level. On-chain data firm CryptoQuant states that BTC failed to effectively break through the approximately $82,430 200-day moving average, indicating that this rally is facing greater selling pressure before moving in a clearer direction.

Resistance near the 200-day moving average

This level is often seen as an important dividing line for medium-term trends. CryptoQuant believes that this resistance is similar to the phase rebound in March 2022. At that time, Bitcoin also encountered resistance near the 200-day moving average, followed by a larger decline later that year.

Unrealized profits and realization rising together

In addition to the price failing to break above the 200-day moving average, on-chain unrealized profit levels are also rising. CryptoQuant states that the unrealized profit rate among traders rose to 17.7% on May 5, the highest since June 2025. This suggests that investors with large unrealized gains may be more willing to sell.

The firm also mentions that there has been a clear increase in profit-taking behavior in the market. Last week, Bitcoin's single-day profit-taking volume reached 14.6k BTC, worth approximately $1.16 billion at the prices mentioned, the largest single-day scale since December 2025.

US spot buying weakens

Another signal of concern comes from Coinbase premium. This indicator measures the price difference between Coinbase and Binance Bitcoin prices and is often used to gauge the strength of spot demand in the US market. CryptoQuant states that this indicator has turned negative since late April, indicating weakening US spot demand.

As of Wednesday, Bitcoin has fallen about 1.6% in 24 hours, roughly 2.5% over the past week, with the latest price at $79,379, about 3.5% below the 200-day moving average mentioned by CryptoQuant.

Around $70k remains a key observation level

However, CryptoQuant also points out that if the correction continues, around $70k could still provide support. This level corresponds to the realized price on the trader’s chain, which has historically served as a support zone that can turn from resistance during bear markets. When the price approaches this cost basis, unrealized profits shrink, and the selling pressure may also weaken accordingly.