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The inexperienced are not afraid of tigers—Analysis of the price increase list for BILL

Veteran crypto investors all know a common rule: do not rush to buy newly launched tokens; the founding team, VCs, and airdrop recipients will want to cash out some profits, and new tokens usually experience a price dip initially. However, BILL has become an exception, starting at around 0.04 and then soaring—on May 6, it reached 0.062 (a 62% daily increase), and on May 9, it skyrocketed to about 0.097-0.148 when it topped CoinGecko’s hot list (a 26% daily increase). Its FDV was once pushed to between $446 million and $1.2 billion, and today it hit a high of 0.2 USD. So what has enabled it to keep climbing? Let’s take a quick look!

1. Basic fundamentals overview

Project positioning—"Identity verification layer for the AI era"

Billions Network is a human and AI identity verification platform based on zero-knowledge proofs (ZK Proof). It is positioned as a competitor to Worldcoin but emphasizes privacy protection—users can prove they are real, unique individuals without revealing any personal data. Its "Know Your Agent" framework covers identity verification scenarios for over 9,000 applications, supporting staking, governance, AI service payments, and more. The project has secured $30 million in funding from institutions like Cbase Ventures and Polychain, with an estimated valuation of around $100 million.

The narrative itself is attractive—AI identity verification is a hot track in the current crypto market, and positioning against Worldcoin naturally brings topic relevance. However, it’s important to be clear: Worldcoin already has a network of millions of real users verified via iris scans, while Billions Network is still mostly in the narrative stage. The actual user base and the depth of ecosystem usage need further validation.

2. Token distribution controversy—The biggest hidden risk in community trust

This is the most critical risk point BILL currently faces. The total supply is 10 billion tokens, with only 23% circulating at launch (about 2.3-240M), and 77% locked for four years. The problem is:

The community allocation has a lock-up period of over 6 months, with only about 30k users receiving airdrops, meaning many community members cannot claim or sell immediately. Community criticism is loud—some call this "the worst distribution plan" and "criminal pump," arguing that low circulating supply combined with community lock-up allows project insiders to manipulate the price upward in a low-selling pressure environment. Before launch, there was also a last-minute change to vesting terms, further damaging trust. The airdrop claim deadline is May 17, and some large holders’ airdrops are worth between $35,000 and $75k but cannot be liquidated.

What does this mean? The initial low circulating supply created a "scarcity effect" that pushed prices higher, but as vesting unlocks and airdrop users gain selling rights, there will be ongoing selling pressure. When 77% of the tokens are gradually unlocked over four years, whether the market can absorb this is a core concern. The hot trading momentum at launch was largely driven by this artificially created "scarcity" structure, not genuine demand.

3. Market analysis and technical indicators

Since launching on May 4, BILL’s price trend has followed a typical new coin hype pattern: opening at about 0.04 → soaring to 0.062 on May 6 (a 62% daily increase) → reaching a high of 0.148 on May 9 → currently around 0.124, with a daily high-low spread exceeding 100 times (high 0.148 vs. nearly 0 low). This extreme volatility indicates very poor liquidity and high slippage risk.

On the daily chart, RSI broke above 75 when the price surged to 0.051, entering overbought territory (according to Bn community analysis). Although it has pulled back somewhat, it remains in a relatively high zone.

Key price levels: Resistance around 0.137-0.148 (May 9 high), support around 0.111 (May 10-11 consolidation zone).

4. Investment reference

Short-term (1-2 weeks): Currently in the first wave of price surge and correction after launch, with extremely volatile swings (daily high-low difference over 100 times), and insufficient liquidity pools. After the May 17 airdrop claim deadline, a selling wave may occur. If you have short-term trading experience and strong risk tolerance, you might consider very small positions (no more than 1-2% of total assets) to participate in the volatility, but strict stop-losses are essential, and overnight holding is not recommended. Key resistance around 0.137-0.148, support near 0.111.

Mid-term (1-3 months): The core indicators are how well the selling pressure from vesting unlocks is absorbed, the growth of actual on-chain identity verification users, and whether Cbase or bn’s official launch occurs (currently only in bn Alpha, not officially tradable). If after the unlock, the price stabilizes in the 0.08-0.10 range with genuine user growth data, the mid-term outlook could turn positive. If a large sell-off occurs after May 17 and breaks support, the outlook is bearish.