Questioning AI · How does SQM nationalization affect Tianqi’s bargaining power?

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Lithium tight balance supports the bottom line, SQM’s change sparks uncertainty.**

Author | White Cat

Editor | Little White

Explosive first-quarter performance, industry returns to tight balance expectations

On the evening of April 20, Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) released a performance forecast with significant explosive potential.

In the first quarter, the company预计实现归母净利润1.7B元至2B元，同比增长1530.3%至1818.0%。扣非净利润表现同样炸裂，预计为1.6B元至1.96B元，增幅高达3501.5%至4311.9%。

How are these multi-decade multiples of growth figures achieved?

There are actually two main drivers: First, the fundamentals are genuinely improving. The company states that benefiting from the development of the new energy industry and increased downstream demand, the average sales price of major lithium products during the reporting period increased significantly compared to the same period last year.

Second, the “extremely low base” amplifies the visual impact. In Q1 2025, the company’s performance was at a low point, with net profit attributable to the parent only 8B yuan (with non-recurring net profit just over 8B).

The combination of rising volume and price, plus an ultra-low base, jointly contributed to this “performance explosion.”

(Tianqi Lithium Performance Forecast)

This forecast confirms management’s judgment on the supply-demand pattern of the industry: by 2026, the global lithium industry will present a tight balance.

The actual industry operation since Q2 also supports this forecast, with the company expecting lithium mineral supply to remain tight in the first half of the year.

(Tianqi Lithium: Record of Investor Relations Activities on April 8, 2026)

Investment gains help turn losses into profits, with optimized pricing mechanisms

Looking back at 2025, the company’s overall operations showed a bottoming rebound. Annual revenue reached 10.35 billion yuan, down 20.8% year-over-year; profit turned positive, with net profit attributable to the parent at 460 million yuan, a 105.9% increase from a loss of 7.9 billion yuan last year.

However, the company has chosen not to pay dividends for now, citing that the key consideration is that it is currently in a critical period of resource reserves and business growth, needing to retain capital margins to support capacity expansion and industry chain extension.

(Tianqi Lithium: Record of Investor Relations Activities on April 8, 2026)

In the past 7 years of dividends, the company only distributed cash dividends in 2022 and 2023 when free cash flow was ample.

In fact, in 2025, the company slightly turned around from losses mainly by earning profits from its stake in SQM. In 2025, the company recognized nearly 670 million yuan in investment income from SQM, clearly covering and exceeding the total 460 million yuan net profit attributable to the parent, indicating that the main business was still operating at a loss.

SQM owns the world’s largest lithium salt lake reserves in the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile. The high lithium concentration, large reserves, mature extraction conditions, and low operating costs make it one of the most advantageous salt lake resources globally, and an important lithium product production area worldwide.

Obviously, this reliance on auxiliary business for “passive profit” is not stable.

(2025 Annual Report)

A noteworthy point is that the shortening of the pricing cycle for the company’s controlling subsidiary, Wanfeld Lithium Mine, is a major highlight. This significantly reduces the impact of timing mismatches between upstream concentrate prices and downstream product prices, enhancing the company’s risk resistance in lithium price fluctuations.

(2025 Annual Report)

SQM faces “absorption” pressure

In recent years, SQM’s change has been a focus of market attention. The incident originated from the Chilean government’s efforts to strengthen control over salt lake resources, intending to incorporate SQM’s core asset—the Atacama Salt Lake—into a joint operation with state-owned company Codelco.

(Record of Tianqi Lithium’s Litigation and Major Contracts of Subsidiaries as of January 29, 2026)

(2025 Annual Report)

To defend its rights, Tianqi filed a lawsuit, but in January 2026, the Chilean Supreme Court issued a final ruling dismissing Tianqi’s appeal. This means the partnership agreement between SQM and Codelco will be officially promoted.

This transaction is essentially SQM’s “control-for-time” swap: although the mining rights for the salt lake are extended to 2060 and short-term quotas increased, the price is the transfer of core business control— the joint venture will be controlled by the Chilean state enterprise Codelco.

(Record of Tianqi Lithium’s Litigation and Major Contracts of Subsidiaries as of January 29, 2026)

For Tianqi Lithium, which holds nearly 21.9%, the legal rights protection process has reached its end.

Long-term, with the control of core assets changing hands, Tianqi Lithium’s revenue rights and bargaining power over this key high-quality resource may face revaluation risks.

(Record of Tianqi Lithium’s Litigation and Major Contracts of Subsidiaries as of January 29, 2026)

To prevent risks (the company states to improve asset liquidity and utilization), it has authorized the potential reduction of its SQM stake by no more than 1.3%. The investment income from SQM in Q1 is currently estimated based on Bloomberg forecasts, and actual data may differ once officially released.

(Record of Tianqi Lithium’s Investor Relations Activities on April 8, 2026)

Holding onto lithium mines remains fundamental

In the face of uncertainties brought by SQM’s nationalization regarding returns and bargaining power, Tianqi Lithium’s true confidence still relies on its unique lithium resource advantage.

On the resource side, the company controls the Greenbushes spodumene mine in Australia, currently the largest lithium spodumene mine globally with the lowest costs, accounting for 9.3% of the total global lithium resource output in 2025.

(2025 Annual Report)

Meanwhile, domestic Yajiang Cuola Lithium Mine construction is also underway, further strengthening resource security.

(2025 Annual Report)

In terms of capacity expansion, the Greenbushes chemical-grade Plant No. 3 produced its first batch of qualified chemical-grade lithium concentrate in January 2026, and plans to complete capacity ramp-up within the year, pushing total concentrate capacity to 2.14 million tons per year.

(2025 Annual Report)

On the technological front, the company continues to push into next-generation technologies in the lithium domain. For the hot solid-state battery track, it has already developed ultra-thin lithium metal negative electrodes and launched a pilot project producing 50 tons of lithium sulfide annually.

By securing the next-generation core materials, the company is continuously expanding its technological moat in the new energy sector.

(Record of Tianqi Lithium’s Investor Relations Activities on April 8, 2026)

However, the long-term risks of replacing current battery systems should also be noted.

While lithium-ion batteries remain the mainstream technology with irreplaceable advantages in high energy density and lightweighting, it is undeniable that sodium-ion batteries have developed rapidly in recent years, especially in low-temperature and safety performance, and are expected to carve out a long-term share in the currently hot energy storage track.

In other words, even if sodium-ion batteries cannot make a significant impact on power batteries, they can help downstream ease lithium demand.

Recently, CATL’s chief scientist stated that sodium-ion batteries have solved core manufacturing issues and will be mass-produced within the year.

These emerging technological routes, during commercialization, will objectively pose potential impacts on existing lithium resource demand, representing a long-term industry variable to monitor continuously.

Disclaimer: This report (article) is based on publicly disclosed information from listed companies, including but not limited to interim announcements, periodic reports, and official interaction platforms, as an independent third-party research. Market Value Wind strives for objectivity and fairness in content and viewpoints but does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. The information or opinions expressed herein do not constitute investment advice. Market Value Wind bears no responsibility for actions taken based on this report.

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