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Mainland exports are strong; expected full-year GDP growth of 4.8%
May 14, 2026
Mainland exports are expected to boost the full-year GDP growth by 4.8%
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Morgan Stanley believes that the mainland’s real estate and consumer markets remain weak, but the rise in artificial intelligence (AI) and green energy capital expenditure, along with an expected 10% increase in exports this year, can offset these negative factors. The bank has accordingly raised its forecast for mainland China’s GDP growth for this year and next by 0.1 percentage points, to 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively, exceeding market expectations, and has excluded predictions of this year’s interest rate cuts and increased fiscal deficit ratio. Renminbi may test 6.7 in the short term Morgan Stanley China Chief …
(Excerpt)