1. Short-term (1–2 weeks, mainly volatile, about to change trend)

1. Core range: $2200–$2400 wide fluctuations, repeatedly testing resistance and support
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- Strong resistance: $2400–$2420, multiple rejections, only a volume breakout will open upward space
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- Key support: $2200, if broken, short-term weakness, looking down to $2000–$2100
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2. Technical signals
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- RSI neutral, MACD short-term bearish, daily chart shrinking volume consolidation, likely to choose a one-sided direction in mid to late May
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- Break above $2400 targets directly $2600–$2700; break below $2200, weaken and retrace
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3. Influencing factors
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- Positive: US Clarity Act hearing on 5/14, spot ETH ETF capital inflow, whale accumulation, 30% ETH staking lock-up reduces selling pressure
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- Negative: BTC trend drag, competition from public chains like Solana, DeFi activity decline, hacker security incidents impacting sentiment

2. Mid-term (1–3 months, with June upgrade as key catalyst)

1. Key positive: Glamsterdam upgrade in June
Ethereum Layer 1 throughput triples, market has not fully priced in, early upside likely before upgrade implementation
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2. Institutional level
Institutions like Bitmine continue to increase ETH holdings (targeting 5% total holdings), BlackRock/Fidelity ETF net inflows, long-term buy support
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3. Two scenarios
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- Optimistic (60%): volatile upward, stabilize above $2400, $2600→$3000
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- Cautious (40%): Fed rate cut expectations delayed, BTC bearish, ETH remains in $2000–$2400 range
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3. Long-term (more than half a year)

- Positive: tokenized assets (RWA), AI agent demand, Ethereum infrastructure value increase, institutional allocation demand rises
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- Pressure: intensified competition among public chains, ecosystem activity below new chains, ETH/BTC exchange rate persistently weak
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- Main trend: follow Bitcoin cycle bullishness, gains likely weaker than BTC
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4. Simple operational reference (just ideas)

- Short-term: buy low around $2200, reduce positions near $2400; break above $2420, chase longs; break below $2200, stop-loss and exit
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- Mid-term: buy in batches around $2200–$2300, play the June upgrade rally
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- Risks: strictly set stop-loss, position no more than 10% of total funds