Recently, I found that many friends are struggling with a question: how to tell if the main force is just shaking the market or actually distributing shares? Honestly, these two operations look very similar, but if you grasp the key points, you can tell them apart at a glance.

I’ve summarized four key indicators to share with everyone, hoping to help you avoid being scared out during shakeouts.

First, look at the trading volume. This is the most intuitive signal. During a shakeout, the main force usually deliberately suppresses the trading volume, creating panic with small fluctuations to scare off weak-handed retail investors. But when distributing shares, it’s different; the main force needs to offload their holdings, so they will increase the trading volume, making market activity very lively. So, just pay attention to changes in volume, and you'll understand what the market is doing.

Next is the price position. This is very critical. Generally, the main force will start shaking out when the price gains about 30%, which can clear out uncertain chips and allow for another round of accumulation at lower levels. But if the gain has already exceeded 60%, it’s very likely that the main force has started distributing shares. At this point, you will see large volume at high levels, which is a risk signal.

The third perspective is intraday trend. During a shakeout, the intraday chart will fluctuate significantly. The main force creates panic through sharp rises and falls to induce retail investors to sell. But during distribution, it’s different; the main force will keep the price relatively stable, and the intraday chart will show a gentle trend, aiming to quietly offload chips. So, observing the degree of fluctuation in the intraday chart can help you judge whether it’s a shakeout or distribution.

The last is the distribution of chips. During a shakeout, chips are concentrated at the bottom and very stable, like the main force is stockpiling ammunition, ready to strike. But once the main force begins distributing, the bottom chips will gradually loosen, and the distribution pattern will change. Knowing how to read chip distribution allows you to accurately grasp the market rhythm.

Honestly, the hardest part isn’t understanding these four indicators, but not getting scared out during a shakeout. Many people fail to distinguish between shakeouts and distribution, and sell their holdings while the main force is still accumulating, only to watch the market soar later. Therefore, I suggest combining these indicators to analyze, rather than relying on a single signal, so you can more accurately judge market trends.