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The last Iran ceasefire lasted 24 hours
Before that one lasted 18 hours
But the market still gives permanent peace a 35% chance
Here's how I'm collecting on that delusion:
Bet 1: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 at 65%
Bet 2: Iran ends uranium enrichment by June 30 at 76%
Bet 3: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30 at 87%
Bet 4: Hormuz returns to normal by June at 66%
These aren't 4 questions
They're 1 question asked 4 ways
Is the Iran conflict resolving in 7 weeks?
Spoiler: No
Now here's why the parlay structure matters more than picking the right markets
When 4 markets share one underlying driver
Entering separately means you're splitting one thesis into fragments
Each fragment pays you a small individual return
A parlay through @Poly_Parlay treats them as what they actually are
Bot access:
One payout that multiplies across every leg when the chain resolves correctly
Peace deal fails, Enrichment continues, Uranium stays in Iran, Hormuz stays closed
You make 2,816% APY