#Gate广场五月交易分享 Halving cycle nearing its end: The full picture of Bitcoin's volatility and long-short battles in 2026

In October 2025, Bitcoin reached a historic high of $126k, then plummeted to $60k in February 2026, a retracement of 50%; in May, it rebounded to $81k, still below the 82,894 USD 200-day moving average, maintaining a bearish oscillation structure technically. The bull market peak after the April 2024 halving was realized as expected, but the cycle logic has been reshaped by institutional funds, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rebound.

On-chain and capital indicators are weak: this round of rally was driven by perpetual contract leverage buying, with real spot demand remaining weak; daily realized profits have reached 14,600 BTC, with short-term profit-taking pressure continuously accumulating. Since November 2025, spot ETF net outflows have totaled $1.3 billion, indicating low institutional long-term allocation willingness.

Market three-way fierce battle:
The bearish camp predicts a bottom in October based on the 12-month historical bear cycle, targeting $32k–$60k;
The early bullish camp believes $60k is already the bottom, and breaking $90k will accelerate the upward trend;
Neutral institutions generally expect a second dip, closely watching the strong support at $50k, with Standard Chartered lowering the annual target to $100k.

Macroeconomic suppression is significant: US CPI remains high, Fed rate cut and hike expectations are delayed, suppressing crypto risk appetite; the geopolitical crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices higher, with Bitcoin and the dollar index showing a high negative correlation of -0.9, intensifying risk aversion and volatility resonance.

Key observation threshold: Confirm reversal by holding above the $83,000 200-day moving average; a drop below $78,000 would trigger a second decline; closely monitor the June Fed meeting, ETF capital flows, and changes in international energy prices.

Conclusion: The current rebound is a leverage-driven weak recovery, with the spot fundamentals unchanged, and significant long-short divergence. Before breaking key moving averages, a trend reversal signal has not yet been established.