5.13 Market Analysis (Simplified Update)

Trend Direction: Short

The trend continues the previous bearish trend judgment, so there is no need to elaborate further. The support and resistance areas provided earlier are still valid. The only additional note is some oversold rebound short-term buy zones. The overall trend remains mainly bearish.

BTC: The recent 3-day low was broken, now at the 12H level MA30. This MA30 provides some support strength and resonates with the 4H level MA90. Therefore, aggressive traders can buy at the current price (around 79,257 with a 200 USD buffer). However, from the 4H pattern, the probability of downward liquidity absorption is also significant. For more conservative traders, it’s recommended to buy near the support zone of 78,156-79,257, specifically around 78,156 with a 200 USD buffer, with a stop loss at 77,601. Take profit can be set below 79,257. (Monitor closely; personally, I prefer to lightly buy short-term longs near 78,156, and if it rises by 400 USD, set a 100 USD trailing stop for protection.)

ETH: Today’s rebound is stronger than BTC, but the 4-hour chart still shows a strong downward momentum. It is currently fluctuating within the support zone of 2,236-2,273. The first upside target is whether it can break through 2,273-2,285. Short-term traders can consider shorting at this resistance level, while short-term longs can consider buying near the support edge of 2,236. In case of a sharp decline, look at the next support zone of 2,160-2,204, around 2,204.

Since I have been holding trend shorts in BTC and ETH, I am not considering high-frequency entries for shorts in the short term. I only consider shorting at key resistance edges during rebounds, with a light position. For example, today I entered a short at 2,320 USD on ETH during the day, and I am not aiming for large profits. Half of the position at 2,270 USD has been closed, and the remaining half is set to take profit at 2,233 USD. The core of short-term trading is still mainly long positions, to catch oversold rebounds and hedge the trend shorts’ rebound profits.

Trump’s visit to China has landed in Beijing. It’s worth noting that our Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced this only one day before the visit. Historical patterns suggest that after Trump’s visit to China, there will be a significant pullback. While history should not be blindly copied, it’s important to be aware and cautious.

Today’s PPI data is a major negative surprise, far exceeding expectations. There is also uncertainty regarding Wosh’s appointment. Therefore, our trend bias remains bearish. To reverse the trend, a downward move with some space is needed, such as ETH dropping to around 2,160 or even 2,088.

Support and Resistance Zones:

BTC

Support: 78,156-79,257, 76,588-77,601, 74,806-75,500, 73,024-74,345

Resistance: 80,598-82,656, 83,590-85,140, 86,380-87,273

ETH

Support: 2,236-2,273, 2,160-2,204, 2,088-2,140, 1,990-2,041

Resistance: 2,348-2,390, 2,423-2,475, 2,550-2,616