When I get the itch to chase a rally, I now first pause for ten seconds and ask myself: Did I really get some new information, or am I just watching the candlesticks climb one after another, and starting to feel defiant inside? In plain terms, using emotions to push your position is the most dangerous thing—because you think you’re “grabbing an opportunity,” but really you’re just filling in anxiety.

Lately, the interpretation about ETF fund flows and U.S. stock risk appetite has been used to explain crypto price movements in both directions, and I will look at it too, but I won’t treat it as the button to open a position… at most, it’s like a weather forecast. Anyway, what I care more about is: if this added position pulls back a bit, will I still be able to sleep? If I can’t, then it means it wasn’t information—it was emotion. That’s it for now.