Macroeconomic Calm Period, Ethereum Awaits the Next "Trigger"

May 13th, the overall cryptocurrency market performed calmly, with Ethereum slightly retracing 0.87%, trading within a narrow range around $2,300. This state of "not moving up but not falling deep" actually highlights the core issue in the current market: the lack of clear macro catalysts.

First, looking at the macro aspect. This week, the U.S. did not release any important CPI or non-farm payroll data, and Federal Reserve officials have entered a silence period, leaving the market without new policy signals to trade on. The US dollar index (DXY) has recently oscillated between 101 and 102, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 3.8%, weakening the pressure on risk assets, but without any obvious positive stimuli. In simple terms, the macro environment has entered a "dormant period," with no bad news causing sell-offs and no good news driving rallies.

Next, regarding internal sentiment in the crypto market, the Fear and Greed Index today reports 54, in the "neutral" zone, a significant drop from last week's 62 (greedy). This level is interesting—it neither triggers panic selling among retail investors nor attracts FOMO-driven capital to rush in. On social media, words like "sideways," "oscillation," and "boring" are high-frequency terms, with discussion volume down about 30% compared to last week. From a behavioral finance perspective, the market sentiment shifting from greed to neutrality often signals that the adjustment phase is entering its latter stage.

Additionally, worth noting is Bitcoin's dominance rate (BTC Dominance), which today reports 51.2%, still slowly climbing. Over the past two weeks, BTC.D has risen from 49.8% to 51.2%, indicating that funds still favor Bitcoin over altcoins. For Ethereum to break out with an independent trend, the first sign would be BTC.D turning downward, meaning funds are starting to flow from Bitcoin into ETH and other large-cap coins. Currently, this signal has not appeared.

Forecast data on Polymarket also reflect this "wait-and-see" mentality—the probability distribution across price ranges is very even, with "2250-2300," "2300-2350," and "2350-2400" options having probabilities of about 32%, 38%, and 30%, respectively, with no option clearly leading. This indicates that market participants generally lack a strong directional judgment.

Overall, I believe Ethereum is likely to continue its sideways pattern today, with limited room for upward or downward movement. The real turning point may come mid-week or next week, especially if positive news arrives (such as ETF fund inflows recovering, regulatory favorable policies, etc.), which could push ETH upward; otherwise, it may test the $2,250 support again. Today's specific forecast: a volatility range of $2,280-$2,330, with the closing probability leaning toward the upper half.