Bitcoin at $80k has support! The "iron bottom" seems to be emerging, so why are traders still hesitant to chase the highs?

After last Friday’s shakeout and washout, Bitcoin has once again regained the $80k mark.
However, behind this seemingly strong rebound, market observers are filled with caution:
Is this truly a powerful breakout by the bulls? Or is it a “false move” testing the selling pressure above?
Market analysts point out that compared to simple price movements, Bitcoin’s current market structure is actually turbulent beneath the surface.
Undeniably, spot buying has indeed warmed up, and the inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds continues to provide support.
However, a large part of the recent active market trend is driven by high-leverage futures traders, rather than pure spot demand.
This makes Bitcoin’s rally more vulnerable to macroeconomic negative shocks, especially with upcoming inflation data releases.
Active buying, but the structure is “unhealthy”
Singapore-based market maker Enflux states that the strong demand for ETFs and the continuous bottoming out of Bitcoin holdings on exchanges are helping to establish a more solid “structural bottom” for Bitcoin.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode also indicates that, whether in the spot market or perpetual contracts, buyers are becoming more aggressive.
The problem is, this bullish performance isn’t very impressive.
Currently, the market’s upward momentum is waning, while leverage ratios continue to rise, and funding rates still show that short hedging demand persists.
In other words, traders are still hedging against the rebound rather than fully embracing this rally.
Bitcoin has risen 13.4% over the past 30 days and is currently hovering around $81k.
Last Friday’s better-than-expected non-farm payroll report was originally a sign of a strong economy, but under the shadow of the Federal Reserve possibly delaying rate cuts, it became a market constraint.
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $80k from $82k, touching $79,743 before rebounding.
Enflux analysis: “If this were a clean bullish breakout, Bitcoin should have easily crossed $80,700, but the spot market pulled back first.
This indicates that the $80k level is not just a chart line but also a real heavy selling pressure.”
If market risk appetite is truly returning, why can’t Bitcoin show a more convincing breakout?
In response, Enflux offers a rare but insightful comparison indicator: the gradually recovering high-end luxury watch market, which may help decode the true trend among high-net-worth clients.
According to Morgan Stanley’s latest secondary market watch data, watch prices in Q1 rose slightly by 1.9%, with 25 out of 35 tracked brands showing gains, indicating improved value retention and inventory turnover.
The message behind this data is not that hot money in the crypto space is flowing into luxury watches, but that after a long price correction, high-net-worth buyers are re-embracing those assets with clear pricing, scarcity, and easily assessable demand.
This presents a stark contrast for Bitcoin: if the risk appetite in the high-end market is thawing, but Bitcoin remains hesitant at key resistance levels, it suggests that in the process of capital reflow, cryptocurrencies have yet to become the preferred investment for the wealthy.
Who is leading the market?
Glassnode’s trading data shows that buyers are indeed more active, but not enough to fully dispel market doubts.
One key indicator is the “Cumulative Volume Delta” (CVD).
Simply put, CVD is used to observe whether “active buying” or “active selling” dominates the market, and it reflects which side is leading the market direction.
Glassnode points out that the spot market CVD has risen from $42.4 million to $62 million, an increase of 46.4%, indicating that buyers are increasingly willing to chase prices rather than wait for dips to buy cheaper.
As for perpetual contracts, CVD surged from $110 million to $410.3 million, suggesting that leveraged traders are also turning more bullish.
However, leverage funds can accelerate rallies, but their sustainability is far less than spot buying.
Once market sentiment shifts, futures positions can reverse very quickly.