#Polymarket每日热点 Today, ETH is experiencing an overall choppy, range-bound movement. After a sharp drop, the price is consolidating. During the session, it briefly fell below the $2,200 level, then rebounded to trade within the $2,250–$2,350 range. The daily chart closed with a star candlestick that has both upper and lower shadows, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour price action is moving within a clear downward channel. The moving average system’s short-term “death cross” suppresses upside space. MACD is continuously diverging below the zero line, indicating that the short-term outlook is bearish. Key support to watch is in the $2,190–$2,200 area; if that level breaks, further downside could follow. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at $2,300–$2,320, with stronger resistance at $2,380–$2,400.

On the fundamentals, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. On-chain data shows that Ethereum’s daily transaction volume has reached a record high of 2.2 million, indicating that network activity remains strong. At the same time, since early May, there has been net outflow of more than 3 million ETH, which the market interprets as a signal of institutional accumulation. However, demand is somewhat weak: ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows of $131 million yesterday, which has weighed on price performance in the near term.

On the macro policy front, there are several developments to note. JPMorgan has applied to launch a tokenized money market fund. In Q1, Wells Fargo significantly increased its exposure to Ethereum ETFs, including BlackRock’s ETHA, and the signal of institutions’ long-term positioning remains clear. However, with the Federal Reserve chair set to be replaced around May 15, the market is expected to stay cautious and largely wait until then.

Overall, the short-term technical picture leans bearish, but support from on-chain data and capital outflows is not weak, so the likelihood of further deep selling is limited. ETH is expected to trade mostly in a range today, with a high probability of moving within $2,200–$2,400. It is expected that early this evening, there will first be a round of selling to probe the bottom, to test the strength of the downside support; afterward, a directional choice may emerge as ETF data releases and sentiment in external markets change.