Yesterday, Bitcoin's retracement just touched the bottom of the triangle pattern, combined with the news outlook for tomorrow, there should be a big wave of market movement.

#Trump Visits China
The real focus is that it just happens to be in an extremely sensitive time window:

Visit to China on May 14 + Federal Reserve leadership transition on May 15.

Looking at these two events together, the flavor completely changes.

What is the biggest contradiction in the market right now?

It's not recession.
It's not inflation.
It's:

How long can high interest rates be sustained.

And Trump's visit to Beijing this time is essentially paving the way for the "post-high interest rate era."

Why do I say that?

Because if the new Federal Reserve truly wants room to cut rates, it must first dismantle two bombs:

1. Oil prices
2. Global supply chain and trade conflicts

Currently, oil prices are at high levels, backed by Middle East risks; global manufacturing profits are under pressure, driven by trade frictions.

So, Trump's visit to China this time, what really influences the market is not a few photos, but:

Whether global risk premiums can be brought down.

As long as energy expectations ease and trade relations improve, the market will default to:

The Federal Reserve finally has a chance to turn.

And the leadership transition on May 15 is precisely the most critical part of the whole story.

Because the market will start re-evaluating one thing:

Will the new monetary cycle officially begin?

This is also why recent risk assets have started to move in advance.

Capital always moves faster than news.

Many people seem to focus on US-China relations on the surface, but in reality, Wall Street is watching:

— US Treasury yields
— US dollar liquidity
— Rate cut path
— The speed of global capital returning to risk assets

For crypto finance, this is the real core.

Because the crypto market is essentially:

An amplifier of global liquidity.

Every major market movement in recent years has almost always been driven by the same logic:

Dollar easing → Risk appetite increases → Funds flow into crypto markets.

So this time, if:

Trump’s visit to China stabilizes external risks,
The new Fed chair signals dovishness,
Oil prices start to fall,
Dollar pressure eases,

Then the market will start re-pricing the entire risk asset system.

And crypto finance is often the fastest to react.

Of course, don’t think about things too simply.

If the visit to China yields no substantive results, or if the new chair remains hawkish, then the market will quickly realize:

“The high interest rate era is not over yet.”

At that point, risk assets will revert to a defensive mode.

So the real trading point now is not who calls for a bull market.

But:

Whether global capital is betting that after mid-May, it will mark the start of a new liquidity cycle.

If the bet is correct, the subsequent market may not be a violent surge.

But the most torturous kind:

A continuous oscillation, a squeeze higher, and a relentless lack of comfortable entry points.