The current US-Iran situation is full of drama. The editor quickly reviewed a diplomatic theater with very different styles of high-ranking US officials:

· US Defense Secretary Hagelstein stated: On May 13, US Secretary of Defense Hagelstein publicly stated that despite recent tensions and exchanges of fire, the Iran ceasefire agreement remains valid.
· Trump’s remarks: Recently, US President Trump said that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is currently in a "life support" state, extremely fragile. At the same time, Trump also described Iran’s ceasefire proposal as "garbage" or "completely unacceptable."
· Disagreements: Both sides have fundamental disagreements on the key commitment that "Iran must not possess nuclear weapons." According to insiders in the US government, due to the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations, the US is now "more seriously considering" resuming military action against Iran than in the past few weeks. Reports indicate that Iran has also put forward several preconditions, including ending conflicts on all fronts and ensuring shipping safety.

The editor quickly reviews the latest developments on the Lebanon-Israel front, with diplomacy and military operations playing a tense dual role:

· Ongoing clashes: On the 13th local time, Hezbollah in Lebanon launched multiple rockets at the Israeli military, and a drone was intercepted, fortunately causing no casualties among Israeli personnel.
· Retaliation: In response, Israel stated that in the past 24 hours, it has decisively targeted 40 of the aforementioned targets and eliminated their armed personnel. Notably, Israeli ground forces are currently about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) deep into Lebanon.
· Ceasefire prospects: Although the ceasefire on April 17 has been extended to May 17, the Israeli military still conducts airstrikes daily and clashes with Hezbollah continue.

The Middle East energy situation remains tense:

· Passage blocked: The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 10 weeks now, with no signs of reopening. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that this waterway, which carries one-fifth of global oil transportation, will remain effectively closed until late May. Even if navigation resumes, oil production and trade patterns are expected to take until late 2026 or early 2027 to return to pre-conflict levels.
· Oil price expectations: If the strait remains closed for a long time, international oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel; even if reopened in June, oil prices are unlikely to fall below $100 per barrel for most of the year.
· Latest quotes: On May 13, Brent crude futures closed at $107.77 per barrel, up about 3.42%; WTI crude futures closed at $102.18 per barrel, up about 4.19%.

The Middle East region remains tense:

· Saudi "strike": Jinjidu data cited Reuters that Saudi Arabia previously launched multiple undisclosed attacks on Iran to retaliate for drone and missile attacks launched by Iran against targets within its territory during the Middle East war.
· Gaza humanitarian crisis: The humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to spread. The World Health Organization reports that since the ceasefire in October 2025, about 2,500 Gaza residents have been disabled due to Israeli bombings. Statistics show that the Israel-Palestine conflict has resulted in over 70k Palestinian deaths and 170k injuries.