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This time, Trump's visit to China is not at all a political stunt; it's simply that both China and the U.S. are so awkward that they have to sit down and put out the fire. Both sides are in difficulty, each calculating their own accounts, and neither has gained an absolute advantage.
U.S.: Desperate to "extend life," driven by real pressures
1. The economy is struggling: national debt interest is about to surpass military spending, tariffs have increased fivefold, and nearly 90% of costs are borne by their own people; exporters are rerouting to "wash" their goods, but in the end, consumers pay the price.
2. High-end technology is being choked: rare earths, chips, and key components depend on China; wanting to "decouple" with tariffs, but can only negotiate due to lack of alternatives.
3. Growth relies entirely on AI support: AI investment accounts for 4% of GDP but drives 92% of growth; returns are lagging, and risks are concentrated in a few companies.
4. Trump’s calculation: using the visit to China to secure large orders and market opening, in exchange for China purchasing more, fulfilling campaign promises, gaining votes, and rescuing American industries.
China: Also in a "painful period," seizing the opportunity to stabilize the overall situation
1. Strong manufacturing but difficult transformation: capable of export and supply chain, but global demand is weak, trade protectionism rising, traditional industries are involuted, and new industries haven't fully taken over.
2. Domestic demand is weak: people have money but are afraid to spend; production capacity is sufficient but consumption is weak; the economy is large, but the sense of gain is not strong.
Core demands: stabilize foreign trade, attract foreign investment, strive to lower tariffs, break through technological blockades, buy time for domestic transformation, and reduce pressure.
One sentence to clarify: each side pursues its own needs and helps each other in emergencies
U.S.: Internally weak, relies on debt and AI support, poor livelihoods, high-end technology blocked, seeking China's help to boost the economy and stabilize votes.
China: Solid foundation, strong manufacturing, but in transformation pain and insufficient domestic demand, easing external pressures and maintaining development.
Essentially: it’s not about who wins or loses, but two major powers in awkward periods, temporarily breaking the ice through diplomacy and supporting each other.