Forbes: America's $39 trillion debt "crisis" could trigger a Bitcoin surge

Original Title: U.S. Dollar 「Collapse」—A $39 Trillion Debt 「Crisis」 Is Quietly Predicted To Trigger A Huge Bitcoin Price Boom To Rival Gold

Original Author: Billy Bambrough, Forbes
Original Compilation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Since the U.S. declared war on Iran, Bitcoin has surged 30% (and currently, two major shocks are coming toward Bitcoin’s price).

However, Bitcoin’s price is still nowhere near its all-time high of $126,000 in December 2025, even as U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says China is secretly hoarding Bitcoin.

Now, just as traders prepare for the “imminent” White House Bitcoin moves, legendary billionaire Ray Dalio is warning that the U.S. dollar is wobbling and on the verge of collapse—while meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predict that funds will massively rotate from gold into Bitcoin.

The U.S. dollar is suffering ongoing depreciation, and some people worry that this could evolve into a full-blown collapse—thereby boosting gold and Bitcoin prices.

“America now spends $7 trillion a year and brings in about $5 trillion, so spending is 40% higher than income,” said Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, during The New York Times’ “Interesting Times” podcast.

“This kind of deficit has been going on for a while, so its debt is about six times income. Historically, this situation causes problems.”

Update on May 11: After reports that U.S. national debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, Mark Goldwein, senior vice president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, warned that the U.S. is entering a debt spiral.

“When this happens, at some point you get trapped in this debt spiral,” Goldwein told The New York Times. “The only way to stop it is through some kind of systemic shock.”

Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) disclosed last week that this year the U.S. Treasury has paid $628 billion in net interest toward debt repayment.

“Net interest spending on the public debt increased by $41 billion (or 7%), because the level of debt is larger than it was in the first seven months of fiscal year 2025 and long-term interest rates are higher. The decline in short-term interest rates partly eased the overall growth in interest payments,” the CBO said.

After gold prices fell toward $4,000 per ounce in April, they have rebounded in recent weeks, and analysts pointed to inflation pressures and the debt spiral as reasons driving the rise.

“High inflation, ever-rising sovereign debt, and ongoing global uncertainty continue to boost gold’s appeal. The market doesn’t need new catalysts—the existing catalysts have always been there,” Max Baecker, president of American Hartford Gold (AHG), said in an email comment.

In recent years, due to large-scale government spending during the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns, U.S. debt has surged sharply, and rapid rate hikes to curb inflation have further increased the debt-repayment cost of $39 trillion.

“So when we look back at history, we see that in all such periods, all fiat currencies depreciate, and gold rises,” Dalio said, adding that gold is currently the “second-largest reserve currency” held by central banks.

When asked whether the economy would head toward a “crisis and collapse,” Dalio said that future “financial crises will mean extremely limited spending capacity,” and added that he “doesn’t believe any fiat currency will be an effective store of wealth.”

Dalio’s warning coincided with views from Wall Street giant JPMorgan analysts, who believe that “devaluation trades are rotating from gold into Bitcoin.”

Over the past two years, gold prices have doubled, rising alongside silver, as traders bet that persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve’s money printing will devalue and dilute the dollar.

In a report seen by The Block, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said they see Bitcoin (dubbed “digital gold” because of its supply cap and immutability) surpassing gold as a devaluation hedge after the Iran conflict, because Bitcoin ETF inflows have outpaced gold ETF inflows.

In March this year, another billionaire investor, Stanley Druckenmiller, predicted that in 50 years, the dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency—possibly replaced by Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

“We’re doing everything we can to destroy it,” Druckenmiller said, which may refer to the ever-rising U.S. budget deficit—something he previously described as a “debt bomb.” He added that the dollar “may outlive me, but I doubt it will still be the reserve currency in 50 years.”

Druckenmiller called the dollar the “cleanest dirty shirt,” and said he doesn’t know what might replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, but he might be “some kind of crypto thing I hate,” consistent with a prediction he made when he first spoke about it in 2021.

In addition, Tesla billionaire Elon Musk has (repeatedly) predicted the end of the dollar, sparking speculation that he is preparing for a major move into Bitcoin.

Musk warned that the world is heading toward a post-fiat era and claimed that “energy is the real currency,” which among Bitcoin supporters has fueled speculation that he is quietly backing cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned that U.S. President Donald Trump might be pushing the dollar toward “malignant inflation,” and some people believe this could trigger a surge in Bitcoin prices.

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