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Tonight at 8:30! PPI determines life or death, the final battle at the 80k level for Bitcoin 🔥
$BTC
The current market is no longer the one that would crash at the slightest breeze three months ago. Institutions are疯狂ly buying 16k Bitcoin below 80k, and the funding rate has ended its 67-day negative rate and turned positive, leaving the bears battered.
Tonight, regardless of the PPI result, as long as it does not fall below 79,000, it’s a buying opportunity.
Three scenarios prepared in advance for you:
Scenario 1: PPI ≤ 4.9% (in line with / below expectations, 60% probability)
Market reaction: Inflation peaks confirmed, rate cut expectations fully priced in, Bitcoin quickly surges to 81,500-82,000
Operation: Hold long positions without moving, break through 82,500 to add more, target 83,800 (200-day moving average)
Historical reference: Last month, PPI below expectations, Bitcoin surged 4.6% on the same day, directly initiating this round of rebound
Scenario 2: PPI 5.0%-5.2% (slightly above expectations, 30% probability)
Market reaction: Brief spike to 79,500-80,000, then a V-shaped reversal within 15-30 minutes
Operation: This is a money-making opportunity! Confidently add to positions in the 79,800-80,200 range
Core logic: The market has already priced in high inflation expectations; the decline is just the final struggle of the bears
Scenario 3: PPI > 5.2% (significantly above expectations, 10% probability)
Market reaction: Panic selling, dropping to 77,500-78,500, extreme cases reaching 76,000
Operation: Stop loss if it breaks below 79,000, wait for stabilization at 76,000-77,000 before gradually re-entering
Note: Even if this happens, it’s only a delayed rebound, and the medium-term trend remains unchanged #美国4月CPI上涨3.8% #沃什确认出任美联储主席